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John Miller

143 articles published

China’s Hidden Trade Deficit: Microchips

UncategorizedSeptember 11, 20260Comments

Another Big Month for Chinese Exports China on Tuesday reported another phenomenal month of exports. Its total shipments rose 25% year-on-year in August to $401.4 billion. Meanwhile, total imports increased 28.2% to $282.4 billion. The gap means China is on track to report a second straight year of a trade surplus of well over a trillion…

TDM Insight: China is Becoming a ‘Factory for Factories’

UncategorizedAugust 14, 20260Comments

Another Strong Month The Artificial Intelligence revolution gets the headlines and is being credited for another robust trade month. In July, Chinese exports increased 23.9% year-on-year to $397.9 billion. Its monthly surplus was $112.5 billion, putting it on track for another trillion-dollar annual surplus. “Export and import values remain elevated, helped by soaring global demand…

China’s New Record: Over 1M Cars Exported in a Month

UncategorizedJuly 29, 20260Comments

China released eye-popping June trade numbers on Tuesday. “A bit insane,” said Brad Setser of the Council of Foreign Relations, on X. Overall, Chinese exports increased 27% year-on-year to $412.4 billion. Imports expanded even more, by 36% year-on-year, to $286.8 billion. Chinese officials attributed the spike to the new artificial intelligence economy. “With the rapid growth of…

Trade Statistics Show Inflation

UncategorizedJune 30, 20260Comments

AI is Still Driving Trade Despite an increase in protectionism and tariffs, global trade has persisted at a steady pace thanks to a boom in sales of new technologies related to artificial intelligence. The war in the Middle East and subsequent energy crisis have only made economies more focused on restructuring in an environmentally friendly…

Is The U.S.-China Trade War Over?

UncategorizedMay 13, 20260Comments

U.S.-China Summit This Week When Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in Beijing, trade, for once, won’t be the primary topic. Among more severe crises in play are the U.S. war with Iran, the rise of artificial intelligence, and China’s desire to annex Taiwan. After the Trump’s imposition of triple-digit tariffs last year, Beijing…

How AI Is Driving Global Trade

UncategorizedMarch 16, 20260Comments

Lower Growth in China In early March, Chinese leadership set their lowest gross domestic product growth target since 1991, forecasting a 4.5% to 5% expansion for its economy in 2026. This week, China reported a 21.8% year-on-year increase in exports for January and February to $656.6 billion. To avoid distorted numbers because of Chinese New…

Global Trade is Moving On — Without the U.S.

UncategorizedJanuary 20, 20260Comments

One way of looking at China’s trade economy in December and for the full 2025 year is its export surge, amplified by a weak currency, deflation at home, and inflation in most of the rest of the world. China pumped up total monthly exports 6.6% to $357.8 billion in December from $335.6 billion over the…

TDM’s Top 10 Trade Trends to Watch in 2026

UncategorizedJanuary 13, 20260Comments

Happy New Year. While we wait on the Supreme Court to rule whether the Trump administration is entitled to apply tariffs on national security grounds, global trade grinds on. We at Trade Data Monitor are paying attention to what’s happening via the prism of official trade statistics. It’s a radically different world than when I started covering…

The Lessons of China’s First-Ever Trillion-Dollar Trade Surplus

UncategorizedDecember 12, 20250Comments

The Trillion-Dollar Surplus After falling year-on-year in October, China’s exports rebounded in November enough that it is almost certain that for 2025, the country that was mired in poverty when you and I were born will become the first nation ever to record a trillion-dollar trade surplus. The number is just a number, but it’s…

Silver Bullet: A Special Report on Mining and Metals Trade in Latin America

UncategorizedNovember 12, 20250Comments

Why China is Still Buying If you’re pessimistic about global trade, you’ve likely been paying too much attention to the Beijing-Washington trade spat. The headline number: In September, Chinese exports to the U.S. declined 27% year-on-year. However, even including that number, China’s monthly exports increased 8.3% year-on-year to $328.6 billion. The truth is that there…

Chinese Exports Down 1.1% in October

UncategorizedNovember 12, 20250Comments

The Chinese export juggernaut finally started to show the impact of protectionism and weaker Western consumer markets in October. A week after Presidents Trump and Xi settled a new trade deal that cut tariffs and put off their trade war for a year, China reported a 1.1% year-on-year drop in exports to $305.3 billion. To…

Is Global Trade Too Strong for Tariffs?

UncategorizedOctober 15, 20250Comments

Global Trade Can Take a Punch This month, markets have swerved to adjust to the threat of new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. Yet, global trade keeps finding a way. In September, although shipments to the U.S. plummeted, China’s monthly exports increased 8.3% year-on-year to $328.6 billion. One way of looking at the stubborn performance…

Casualties of the U.S.-China Trade War: 36 Million Phones

UncategorizedSeptember 17, 20250Comments

Please Dial a New Number As U.S. and Chinese negotiators try to find a way out of tariff gridlock, one thing is certain: The smartphone supply chain has shifted significantly, upending the practices and expectations of manufacturers, logistics firms, and retailers. China’s exports of mobile phone fell 11.6% year-on-year in August to 60.8 million sets.…

Global Coal Trade is Finally Faltering

UncategorizedAugust 25, 20250Comments

China Cuts Coal Imports For years, as governments around the world embraced clean energy technology, coal trade held steady because China was still buying. As the rest of the world turned away from coal, China boosted imports to power its booming electrification, and a vibrant new industry of electric vehicles and batteries. In 2024, it…

China Ramps Up Exports to Vietnam Amid Transshipment Worries

UncategorizedAugust 7, 20250Comments

Made in Vietnam (or China) At a time when trade officials around the world are closely watching Vietnam’s evolving place in the global trading system, Chinese exports to the new Asian economic power in June boomed 23.8% year-on-year to $16.3 billion. The U.S.-China trade war has pushed attention of U.S. trade negotiators toward manufacturing powers…

China Reconfigures Export Markets as Shipments to U.S. Plummet

UncategorizedJune 19, 20250Comments

U.S. Market Collapsing For China As Americans and Chinese officials scrambled to forge new politically acceptable trade terms, China reported a pandemic-level decline in exports to the U.S. Chinese shipments to the U.S. fell 34.4% year-on-year in May to $28.8 billion, the steepest drop since Covid-19 upended global trade in February 2020. Chinese imports from…

How to Think About Tariffs

UncategorizedMay 19, 20250Comments

In the new age of trade geopolitics, the only certainty is uncertainty. What we can do at Trade Data Monitor is take an educated look at trade statistics that measure what’s leaving and entering ports, crossing oceans, and flying through the air. To be sure, the scenario is less than rosy. The World Trade Organization…

Chinese Exports to U.S. Plunge Along With Smartphone Shipments

UncategorizedMay 19, 20250Comments

First Impact of U.S. Tariffs Chinese shipments to the U.S. plummeted 21% year-on-year in April as the impact of Washington’s new import tariffs started to punish the world’s largest exporter. However, as Beijing was quick to point out, China compensated by selling more to its economic partners in Southeast Asia. In a striking coincidence, Chinese…

China Hikes Oil & Gas Imports

UncategorizedApril 23, 20250Comments

China’s Economy When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the move was seen as an essential turboboost to a huge but developing country. Without access to global markets, there was no way for China to become the greatest exporter the world has ever seen. Now, as the backlash to that growth turns into…

Vietnam Boosting Imports from China

UncategorizedApril 3, 20250Comments

Vietnam Pivots Back to Asia Vietnam, one of the world’s most dynamic economies, now faces one of its most important challenges of this century as it faces protectionist headwinds and tepid consumer economies in the U.S. and Europe. So far, its formidable export-based economy has seemed up to the task. In 2024, overall exports rose…

Tech Sector Resilient as Chinese Imports Fall Steeply

UncategorizedMarch 12, 20250Comments

Rocky Waters It’s a perilous time for the global trading system. President Trump has imposed an across-the-board tariff of 20%, in two tranches of 10%, on U.S. imports of Chinese goods. There are threats of more action, on microchips, drugs, and automobiles. Lesser degrees of protectionism in Europe, Canada and elsewhere are also denting confidence…

Record Chinese Global Surplus Neared $1 Trillion in 2024

UncategorizedJanuary 27, 20250Comments

The Trillion-Dollar Surplus In 2024, China recorded the biggest global trade surplus in economic history at $992 billion, according to preliminary data released Monday by Beijing. The gap, beating the previous record of $838 billion in 2022, is almost certainly unsustainable. Amid worsening relations with the U.S., Europe and Canada, it may never pass the…

Chinese Demand Falters as Imports Decline

UncategorizedDecember 16, 20240Comments

Trade in a Time of Geopolitical Adjustment The focus of the global trade world is, rightly, on President-elect Donald Trump and the U.S. debating and deciding how far they’ll go in enacting new protectionist measures. But an issue that could upend geopolitics -- with unintended consequences that will affect big issues like war and peace,…

Steel Trade Trends in 2025

UncategorizedNovember 15, 20240Comments

Shake-up in Global Steel The world of steel trade is in for a shake-up. New climate rules in Europe, the prospect of ramped-up U.S. tariffs on steel and an excess of Chinese steel imports mean companies around the world must calibrate their trade strategies in 2024. With the U.S. locked in protectionism and the…