The Chinese export juggernaut finally started to show the impact of protectionism and weaker Western consumer markets in October.
A week after Presidents Trump and Xi settled a new trade deal that cut tariffs and put off their trade war for a year, China reported a 1.1% year-on-year drop in exports to $305.3 billion.
To be sure, this is only one month. China has shown resiliency thus far in 2025, finding other markets as Washington puts up obstacles to its exports. Shipments to the U.S. have declining since the spring. In October, exports to the U.S. fell 25.1% year-on-year to $34.9 billion. But sale to the European Union, especially Germany and France, had been holding steady. In October, surprisingly, they rose only 1%, to $43.9 billion.
Analysts had predicted a 3% overall increase in exports, meaning that China missed its target by 4 percentage points.
Much of the recent analysis has focused on protectionist trade policies driven by populist politics. Although they have caused headaches for businesses by creating a climate of uncertainty, real tariffs have been lower than headline duties. Instead, a big part of the leveling off of Chinese exports has been caused by a change in its export composition, and in consumer demand in the U.S. and Europe. That’s why there’s been dramatic drops in shipments of consumer goods where China used to dominate. In October, for example, toy exports fell a whopping 31% to $2.5 billion. Shoe sales dropped 20.9% to $2.7 billion. Suitcase exports declined 25.7% to $2.1 billion. It’s not just the low-tech stuff. The number of mobile phones shipped dropped 14.2% to 70.6 million. Exports of high-tech products increased a modest 1.8% to $83 billion.
Meanwhile, China is dominating new markets, especially in the automotive sector. Car shipments boomed again in October, rising 34.1% year-on-year to $14.3 billion. In Europe and the U.S., China still has to contend with strong domestic manufacturers. These exports tend to go elsewhere. China’s top 10 car markets so far this year: UAE, Russia, Belgium, UK, Mexico, Australia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Kazakhstan.
The bright spots: In October, shipments to ASEAN nations rose 11.1% to $53.3 billon; exports to Vietnam increased 22.4% to $16.6 billion. Exports to Africa rose 9.4% to $17.7 billion. Exports to Latin America increased 2.2% to $24.1 billion. Exports to Russia, however, plummeted 22.5% to $8.5 billion.
The slowdown in trade poses a challenge for Chinese policymakers. “As exports rapidly lose steam and retail sales show signs of deterioration, we see increasing pressure on Beijing to step up policy support to stabilize growth” until the end of 2025, Nomura wrote in a note.
Domestically, there are certainly questions.
In October, imports rose only 1% to $215.3 billion, raising questions about domestic demand. Imports of agricultural products rose 7.1% to $17.2 billion. Purchases of high-tech products rose by 3.1% to $69.9 billion.
Imports from the U.S. declined 22.5% to $10.2 billion. Imports from the EU rose 4% to $22.1 billion. Imports from ASEAN countries fell 4.6% to $32.5 billion. Purchases from Africa increased 5.4% to $9.7 billion. Imports from Latin America, goosed by soybean sales, were up 15.1% to $21.5 billion. Imports from Russia rose 0.9% to $11 billion.
Beijing has reported GDP growth of 5.2% over the first nine months of the year, and seems on track to hit the government’s 5% goal for the year.
One good sign is the country’s appetite for industrial commodities: Imports of copper and iron ore rose year-on-year in October, as did purchases of natural gas and crude oil. Imports of coal continued to fall sharply.