Please Dial a New Number
As U.S. and Chinese negotiators try to find a way out of tariff gridlock, one thing is certain: The smartphone supply chain has shifted significantly, upending the practices and expectations of manufacturers, logistics firms, and retailers.
China’s exports of mobile phone fell 11.6% year-on-year in August to 60.8 million sets. In dollar terms, they declined 18.9% to $6.8 billion. For the first eight months of 2025, Chinese exports of mobile phones dropped 11.5% to $64.1 billion. The number of sets shipped shrank 7.2% to 462.5 million.
That’s 36 million fewer phones.
It’s no mystery where the capacity has shifted. In the first seven months of 2025, the U.S. has boosted smartphone imports 201.7% from India to $13.2 billion, and 170.9% from Vietnam to $3.5 billion.
Chinese Export Growth Slows
Overall, total Chinese exports rose 4.4% in August to $321.8 billion, below a forecast around 5% and after increasing 7.2% in July. Shipments to the U.S. fell 33.1% to $31.6 billion. Washington currently has tariffs of around 55% on most Chinese exports, while Beijing has duties of around 30% on U.S. goods. Trade diplomats from each country have given themselves two more months to negotiate.
Meanwhile, China has been increasing exports elsewhere. Exports to the European Union rose 10.4% in August to $51.7 billion. Shipments to ASEAN nations rose 22.8% to $57.1 billion. Exports to Vietnam increased 31.2% to $17.6 billion. Sales to Africa increased 26% to $18.6 billion. Shipments to India increased 9.2% to $12.5 billion.
To be sure, there’s only so much more those countries can absorb, and analysts expect exports to level off. “With the temporary boost from the U.S.-China trade truce fading and the U.S. raising tariffs on shipments rerouted via other countries, exports are likely to come under pressure in the near term,” Zichun Huang, China of Capital Economics wrote in a note. The U.S. has been concerned about transshipment and is implementing penalties for goods it believes originate in China.
One country already buying less from China is Russia. Chinese exports to the warring nation fell 16.6% to $8.5 billion. So far this year, exports to Russia have fallen 9.7% to $64.8 billion.
Buying More Soybeans
The U.S. has been pushing China to buy more soybeans. In August, soybean imports increased 1.1% by quantity to 12.3 million tons, but fell 8.6% by value to $5.5 billion. Imports of agricultural products declined 2.9% in August to $18.7 billion. Grain exports increased 7.1% to 217,816 tons but because of falling prices fell 11% by dollar value to $102 million. Overall, exports of agricultural products fell 3.8% to $8.1 billion.
Rare Earth Exports Rise
Washington has also been lobbying for easier trade in rare earths minerals. Exports of rare earths increased 34.6% in August to $55 million. By quantity, they increased 22.6% to 5.791.8 tons. Exports of high-tech products increased 9% to $79.3 billion. Sales of China’s manufacturing staples continued their long, slow fall. Exports of footwear declined 17.1% to $3.3 billion, sales of toys fell 20.9% to $3.2 billion, and shipments of household appliances dropped 6.6% to $8.4 billion.
China’s Long-Term Cut in Imports
Total Chinese imports increased 1.3% to $219.5 billion, as the country stabilizes as more of a self-sustaining market. Imports were down 6% from $233.4 billion in August 2022. In the first seven months of 2025, China reduced imports 2.2% to $1.7 trillion.
China is buying less from all its trading partners. In August, imports from the European Union fell 1.8% to $22.8 billion, purchases from the U.S. declined 15.8% to $11.3 billion, and shipments from ASEAN countries fell 3.8% to $32.8 billion. Imports from Africa declined 6.9% to $9.6 billion. Imports from Russia dropped 18.7% to $9.4 billion.
There were some exceptions: Imports from Vietnam rose 4.6% to $8.9 billion, and purchases from India rose 16.2% to $1.5 billion, a relatively small number. Imports of high-tech products rose 3.5% to $67.3 billion.
To be sure, even as it buys more of what it produces, China still needs raw materials. Imports of copper ore and concentrates increased 7.4% to 2.8 million tons. However, China continued to cut its coal imports: Purchases of the black rock dropped 6.7% to 42.7 million tons.