In the new age of trade geopolitics, the only certainty is uncertainty. What we can do at Trade Data Monitor is take an educated look at trade statistics that measure what’s leaving and entering ports, crossing oceans, and flying through the air. To be sure, the scenario is less than rosy. The World Trade Organization is now forecasting a 0.2% decline in the total value of merchandise trade for 2025. Still, for all the bluster in Washington and Beijing, nations and their consumers need each other to maintain their standard of living, and global trade is still expected to be worth around $24 trillion in 2025. Here are some important trends likely to be accentuated by the shifting current of global trade.
The Importance of U.S. Demand
It’s important to understand why the U.S. has so much leverage in global trade. The country is the world’s richest, and, by some measure the world’s number 1 importer.
Two of America’s top three sources of imports are neighbors: Mexico (number 1 in 2024, with $505.9B) and Canada (number 3, with $412.7B). Number 2 is of course, China, the country which now finds itself in a trade war with the U.S. The upshot of the current trade war seems to be that Washington has a singular focus on curbing trade with China. For companies looking to derisk, the good news is that modern supply chains are so flexible and comprehensive. There are 87 countries that ship over a billion dollars a year worth of merchandise goods to the U.S. For example, the 87th largest provider of goods to the U.S. in 2024 was Croatia, which shipped $312.3M of pharmaceuticals, $190.6M of electronics and $124M in machinery to the U.S.
The Need for Tech
The U.S. government has leverage in trade negotiations, and this government is keen to use it, but the country also has citizens who’ve become reliant on imports of sophisticated electronics like smartphones and laptops. That’s why the Trump administration announced that it would exclude a host of electronic goods including computers and smartphones. These gadgets are so essential to modern life that a government can’t afford to deprive its citizens of them. According to a TDM analysis, the U.S. imported $385.7 billion worth of electronics covered under the specified exclusions. China ($100.2B) was the top supplier, but Taiwan ($73.9B), Mexico ($61.6B), Vietnam ($39.7B), and Malaysia ($23.2B) were close behind. Overall, 18 different countries shipped over a billion dollars’ worth of electronics to the U.S.
China’s Economy
When China joined the WTO in 2001, the move was seen as an essential turboboost to a huge but developing country. Without access to global markets, there was no way for China to become the greatest exporter the world has ever seen. Now, as the backlash to that growth turns into a bitter battle over tariffs, China no longer needs help from a multilateral trade treaty. In fact, with China now the world’s second biggest economy, we’re in unchartered economic waters. For example, in March, despite all the furor around new U.S. import tariffs and the damage it might do its top trading partner, China boosted imports of oil and gas. Natural gas imports rose a whopping 39.2% year-on-year to 9.2 million tons. Imports of crude petroleum oil rose 4.8% to 51.4 million tons. The numbers boosted energy prices around the globe, and showed how the realities of global trade and the uniqueness of China’s economy are likely to continue to surprise analysts. “We have a vast domestic market that serves as a strong strategic backup,” said a government spokesperson. “By staying focused on our own development, we aim to provide stability amid global uncertainty.” Overall, Chinese exports increased 12.3% year-on-year in March to $313.9 billion, and imports fell 4.3% to $211.3 billion, widening China’s trade surplus. Analysts attributed the high export figures to business stocking up on inventory before the tariffs sink in. Once they do, “we think it could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels,” wrote Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics in a note.
The Great Game
The global trade economy is one of the factors re-shifting geopolitical alliances. For China, the tension with the U.S. is a chance to redo economic ties with the entire world. In March, Chinese exports to ASEAN nations rose 11.9% to $59 billion, while imports from the ASEAN bloc increased 10% to $35.1 billion. Exports to the EU rose 9.9% to $43.1 billion. Imports from the EU, however, declined 7.4% to $21.6 billion. Exports to Vietnam increased 19.6% to $17.7 billion, while imports from Vietnam were unchanged at $8.3 billion. Whatever happens with the U.S., there will still be markets for broad categories of Chinese manufacturing. In March, for example, exports of toys rose 6.4% to $3 billion, and sales of footwear increased 10% to $3.2 billion.
Case Study: Vietnam
One important case study to watch in the new tariff picture will be Vietnam, one of the world’s most dynamic economies. So far, its formidable export-based economy has seemed up to the task. In 2024, overall exports rose 14.3% year-to-year to $405.5 billion. Vietnam’s coping strategy, according to an analysis by Trade Data Monitor, has been to turn more toward its prosperous ASEAN partners and China. In 2024, Vietnam increased imports from China a whopping 30.2% to $144 billion. A review of their exports shows that the country is likely in better shape than many fear. Vietnam has trade agreements with over 25 countries.
In 2024, Vietnam exports over a billion dollars’ worth of goods to 36 countries. Vietnam’s top category of exports was computers and electrical products ($72.6 billion, up 26.6%), telephones and mobile phones ( $53.9 billion, up 2.9%), machines, equipment, tools, and instruments ($52.2 billion, up 21%). But Vietnam is still a dominant producer of more basics manufactured goods, offering it the flexibility it will need to adjust to changing export markets. In 2024, for example, Vietnam exported $22.9 billion of footwear, up 13% from 2023. The biggest destination for Vietnam’s powerful consumer goods manufacturing capacity: the U.S. Vietnam exported $8.3 billion worth of footwear to the U.S. in 2024, up 15.7% from 2023. The next biggest markets for footwear were China, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Japan.
Vietnam also shipped significant quantities of certain kinds of furniture ($3.4 billion, up 33.5%), plastics ($2.6 billion, up 21.3%), iron and steel ($9.1 billion, up 8.7%), fruits and vegetables ($7.1 billion, up 27.6%), rubber ($3.4 billion, up 18.2%), and coffee ($5.6 billion, up 32.5%). The top markets for coffee in 2024: Switzerland, the Netherlands and Singapore.
Graphics by Ricardo Cardoza, TDM