John Miller, Author at Trade Data Monitor

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John Miller

138 articles published

How AI Is Driving Global Trade

UncategorizedMarch 16, 2026250Views 0Likes 0Comments

Lower Growth in China In early March, Chinese leadership set their lowest gross domestic product growth target since 1991, forecasting a 4.5% to 5% expansion for its economy in 2026. This week, China reported a 21.8% year-on-year increase in exports for January and February to $656.6 billion. To avoid distorted numbers because of Chinese New…

Global Trade is Moving On — Without the U.S.

UncategorizedJanuary 20, 2026519Views 0Likes 0Comments

One way of looking at China’s trade economy in December and for the full 2025 year is its export surge, amplified by a weak currency, deflation at home, and inflation in most of the rest of the world. China pumped up total monthly exports 6.6% to $357.8 billion in December from $335.6 billion over the…

TDM’s Top 10 Trade Trends to Watch in 2026

UncategorizedJanuary 13, 2026598Views 0Likes 0Comments

Happy New Year. While we wait on the Supreme Court to rule whether the Trump administration is entitled to apply tariffs on national security grounds, global trade grinds on. We at Trade Data Monitor are paying attention to what’s happening via the prism of official trade statistics. It’s a radically different world than when I started covering…

Is Global Trade Too Strong for Tariffs?

UncategorizedOctober 15, 2025840Views 0Likes 0Comments

Global Trade Can Take a Punch This month, markets have swerved to adjust to the threat of new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. Yet, global trade keeps finding a way. In September, although shipments to the U.S. plummeted, China’s monthly exports increased 8.3% year-on-year to $328.6 billion. One way of looking at the stubborn performance…

Casualties of the U.S.-China Trade War: 36 Million Phones

UncategorizedSeptember 17, 20251KViews 0Likes 0Comments

Please Dial a New Number As U.S. and Chinese negotiators try to find a way out of tariff gridlock, one thing is certain: The smartphone supply chain has shifted significantly, upending the practices and expectations of manufacturers, logistics firms, and retailers. China’s exports of mobile phone fell 11.6% year-on-year in August to 60.8 million sets.…

Global Coal Trade is Finally Faltering

UncategorizedAugust 25, 20251KViews 0Likes 0Comments

China Cuts Coal Imports For years, as governments around the world embraced clean energy technology, coal trade held steady because China was still buying. As the rest of the world turned away from coal, China boosted imports to power its booming electrification, and a vibrant new industry of electric vehicles and batteries. In 2024, it…

Chinese Exports to U.S. Plunge Along With Smartphone Shipments

UncategorizedMay 19, 20252KViews 1Like 0Comments

First Impact of U.S. Tariffs Chinese shipments to the U.S. plummeted 21% year-on-year in April as the impact of Washington’s new import tariffs started to punish the world’s largest exporter. However, as Beijing was quick to point out, China compensated by selling more to its economic partners in Southeast Asia. In a striking coincidence, Chinese…

Chinese Demand Falters as Imports Decline

UncategorizedDecember 16, 20242KViews 1Like 0Comments

Trade in a Time of Geopolitical Adjustment The focus of the global trade world is, rightly, on President-elect Donald Trump and the U.S. debating and deciding how far they’ll go in enacting new protectionist measures. But an issue that could upend geopolitics -- with unintended consequences that will affect big issues like war and peace,…

Trump Election Gooses Trade– Before Tariffs Hit

UncategorizedNovember 7, 20242KViews 1Like 0Comments

This week’s election of Donald Trump as the U.S.’s 47th president is almost certainly likely to lead to another trade war with China, and further tariffs on American imports. During the campaign, Trump said his favorite word was tariff and floated a universal 10% tariff and specific duties on Chinese imports as high as 60%.…

50 U.S. States Have 50 Trade Economies

UncategorizedSeptember 24, 20242KViews 1Like 0Comments

The politics of trade in the U.S. have gotten complicated during this century, mainly because deindustrialization in the Rust Belt has cost so many factories and jobs. The free trade consensus of the 1990s that led to NAFTA and China joining the World Trade Organization in 2001 is dead. But it shouldn’t be lost on…

Don’t Overlook Germany’s Trade Economy

UncategorizedSeptember 19, 20242KViews 0Likes 0Comments

The conversation about global trade often leaves out the world’s fourth biggest economy and third top exporter and importer, but Germany is poised to play an even bigger role this decade as China and the U.S. remain locked in a trade war. In August, Chinese exports to Germany jumped a whopping 21.5% to $10.1 billion.…

It’s a Good Summer for Trade But China Ag Imports Fell In July

UncategorizedAugust 12, 20242KViews 1Like 0Comments

During a summer that’s been a boon for free trade despite a looming escalation in trade wars, and the possibility of a second Trump administration, China’s agricultural imports dropped 4.9% year-on-year in July to $17.8 billion. The trend reflects China’s regulatory practices, strategic protectionism, and shifting demographics. China has blocked some U.S. beef imports because of…

China Reboots Trade Thanks to Africa, India, Latin America

UncategorizedMarch 11, 20243KViews 0Likes 0Comments

Don’t let anybody tell you that globalization is dying—at least, not yet. Global trade economists obsess over consumer demand and rising protectionism in the U.S. and Europe, but this week’s release of Chinese trade statistics shows that other markets might soon be catching up in relevance. The Promise of Other Markets China’s exports to Latin…

Vietnam’s Secret Weapon: Agriculture

UncategorizedMarch 1, 20243KViews 0Likes 0Comments

In a tricky global economy, Vietnamese exports shrank in 2023, but the rising economic power managed to be one of the only countries to increase merchandise exports to China, thanks to a surprising surge in exports of fruits and vegetables, as well as rice, demonstrating the importance of export diversification. The Difficulties of 2023 The country of…

Ukraine: Two Years of Wheat Exports In Review

UncategorizedFebruary 29, 20243KViews 0Likes 0Comments

As we enter the third year after the invasion of Ukraine, the landscape of Ukrainian trade, and, specifically, exports of wheat, have drastically evolved. As the world's 4th-largest exporter of wheat and meslin in 2023, Ukraine has remained a relatively stable producer of wheat over the past decade and has remained especially resilient over the…

China Hikes Iron Ore, Copper Imports Amid Car Building Boom

UncategorizedJanuary 23, 20243KViews 0Likes 0Comments

In the somewhat gloomy December and annual China trade statistics released in the second week of January was buried a piece of data that hearkened back to the boom years of Chinese commodity consumption: China is buying a lot more iron ore and copper. In December, China boosted iron ore imports 11.1% year-on-year to 100.9…

Trade Data Monitor’s Top 10 Trade Trends Going Into 2024

UncategorizedDecember 20, 20234KViews 2Likes 0Comments

It’s not an easy time for global trade--the roughly $25 trillion piece of the $105 trillion world economy. Protectionism is roaring in the U.S. and Europe, causing geopolitical tension with China. Inflation across most of the world has shrunk consumers’ wallets and imports, while deflation in China is also scaring businesses. Asian supply chains are…

China Doubles Coal and Gas Imports as Global Trade Putters

UncategorizedJuly 27, 20232KViews 0Likes 0Comments

The world’s biggest exporter reported another month of dismal trade figures for June. Chinese exports declined 13% year-on-year in the month to $285.3 billion, and imports fell 6.9% to $214.7 billion. The decline was driven by a massive drop in consumer spending in the U.S. and Europe, caused by inflation, fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic, and…

China’s New Place in Global Trade: Number 1 Importer of Food&Ag

UncategorizedJune 12, 20233KViews 0Likes 0Comments

As expected, China reported lackluster trade numbers this week, signaling a possible recession in the U.S. and more trouble for the global economy. Chinese exports fell for the first time in three months, dropping 7.5% year-on-year to $283.5 billion. Imports dropped 4.5% to $217.7 billion. The World Bank this week said that the global economy…

Trade Data Show Correlations Between Gas and Urea Prices

UncategorizedFebruary 20, 20232KViews 0Likes 0Comments

Correlations between urea and natural gas pricing can exist during periods when supply and demand disruptions are not driving prices. This is logical given that the urea value chain starts with natural gas. Using statistics from Trade Data Monitor, Baltic country (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, and Sweden) natural gas import prices…

U.S. Gas Exports Surging, High-Tech Supply Chains and Other Key Trade Trends For 2023

UncategorizedFebruary 13, 20232KViews 0Likes 0Comments

The world was rocked in 2022 by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, punishing inflation, and slackening demand in the U.S. and Europe. That’s dampened expectations for exports and imports in 2023. Global trade growth will slow to 1%, according to the World Trade Organization, because of inflation, higher interest rates, weaker demand in the U.S. and…