Trade Data Monitor

Region: U.S.

  • Trade Statistics Show Inflation

    Trade Statistics Show Inflation

     AI is Still Driving Trade

    Despite an increase in protectionism and tariffs, global trade has persisted at a steady pace thanks to a boom in sales of new technologies related to artificial intelligence. The war in the Middle East and subsequent energy crisis have only made economies more focused on restructuring in an environmentally friendly way. 

    That’s why the world’s top trade power, China, has continued to ramp up exports. In May, Beijing’s General Administration of Customs said on Tuesday, exports increased 19.4% year-on-year to $376.8 billion. 

    “The war is boosting demand for green exports, such as electric vehicles, batteries, solar products, and AI-related technology goods, which are linked to China’s structural focus,” Sheana Yue, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note. “China, relatively insulated from energy-related cost shocks, retains advantages in scale, supply-chain depth and industrial capacity.” Overall, Exports of high-tech goods increased 51.1% to $112.1 billion.

    Inflation is Starting to Show up in Trade Data

    However, trade data is starting to show another trend that could ruin the party: inflation. Consider this: The number of integrated circuits exported by China increased 2.1% to 30.7 billion. The value of these shipments rose 111% to $35.5 billion, representing, roughly, a doubling of prices over 12 months. 

    Exports of “automatic data processing equipment and parts thereof”, for which there is no data on quantities, rose 66.1% to $26.9 billion. 

    There were price increases across other categories, too. Exports of “unwrought aluminum and aluminum products”, for example, increased 15.6% by quantity but 38.4% by value. Exports of rare earths declined 6.4% by quantity but increased 237% by value. (The total value of rare earths exports, we should point out, amounted only to a paltry $63 million.) The number of mobile phones exported dropped 3.5% to 53.4 million. By value, they increased 44.3% to $9.9 billion. 

    Exports to the U.S. Are Back Up 

    A year ago, the world was in the throes of a U.S.-China trade war. Washington’s tariffs on Chinese imports were over 100%. Twelve months later, the relations have thawed, including a visit by President Trump to Beijing, and commerce between the world’s two trade powerhouses.  Exports to the U.S. increased 35.6% year-on-year to $39 billion. Imports from the U.S. rose 20.2% to $13 billion. 

    Trade with Europe, which had been booming, has stabilized. Exports to the EU increased 7.6% to $53.2 billion, while shipments from the EU shrank 1.3% to $22.6 billion. 

    Those numbers are dwarfed by China’s trade with its Asian neighbors. Exports to ASEAN nations rose 24.7% to $72.6 billion, while imports increased 27.9% to $40.1 billion. Exports to Canada declined 2.6% to $4.6 billion. Imports from Canada increased 98.6% to $7.2 billion. 

    Energy Markets Are Adapting

    The crisis in the Middle East, and the impasse in the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted energy trade. Chinese imports of crude petroleum oil fell 29% to 33.1 million tons while imports of natural gas increased 111.3% to 10.1 million tons. China is the world’s biggest energy importer. The looming shortages of fossil fuels will only help stimulate China’s lucrative electric vehicle trade. Exports of motor vehicles increased 39.3% to $16.7 billion. By number they increased 42.5% to 987,588. “Support should continue from stronger demand for sustainable energy products amid the oil supply squeeze,” HSBC said in a note.

    China is Buying…Asian Tech

    Imports increased 27.5% to $271.3 billion, but analysts cautioned that this doesn’t mean China will start buying as much from the world as the world buys from it. In a word, China is also building out its AI capabilities. “China’s import growth remains mainly a tech story rather than an energy story,” ING wrote in a blog post. That’s why imports from South Korea, ING pointed out, rose 83.4% to $26.7 billion. Imports of high-tech goods, however, rose 46.9% to $96.6 billion.

    Purchases of agricultural products, by comparison, increased only 4% to $20.7 billion, and imports of pharmaceuticals fell 9.3% to $4 billion. 

    But it almost doesn’t matter how much Chinese imports are growing; they are unlikely to outpace the country’s export juggernaut. In May, Beijing’s trade surplus increased to $105.4 billion from $84.8 billion the month before.

  • Is The U.S.-China Trade War Over?

    Is The U.S.-China Trade War Over?

    U.S.-China Summit This Week

    When Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in Beijing, trade, for once, won’t be the primary topic. Among more severe crises in play are the U.S. war with Iran, the rise of artificial intelligence, and China’s desire to annex Taiwan. After the Trump’s imposition of triple-digit tariffs last year, Beijing and Washington agreed to a one-year trade truce in October that imposes tariffs averaging 47% on Chinese exports to the U.S. and around 30% on goods going the other way. 

     China Boosts Exports

    This weekend, China said its exports to the rest of the world had increased 14.1% year-on-year to $359.4 billion. That was a surprisingly strong performance for a Chinese export economy that’s struggled to find its footing this decade. In March, exports increased only 2.5%, and a group of economists recently interviewed by the Wall Street Journal summoned an estimated expansion for April of only 8%. China’s manufacturers had suffered more than most from the conflict in the Middle East and the difficulty navigating the Strait of Hormuz.

    Trade to the U.S. Recovers

    Exports to the U.S. rose 11.4% to $36.8 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, by contrast, shipments to the U.S. dropped 16.3% to $96.7 billion. What’s going on here? In part, it signals a stabilization after the hard dip caused by tariffs a year ago. April 2025 is when Chinese exports to the U.S. really got hit: That month Chinese exports to the U.S. dropped 21.1% to $33 billion. By comparison in March 2025, they increased 8.7% to $40 billion. With a lower baseline, expect Chinese exports to the U.S. to stay flat on increased slightly year-on-year. To be sure, last year, despite the slowdown in trade with the U.S., China set a record with a $1.2 trillion trade surplus. 

    But the April numbers suggest that the U.S. could be losing leverage. Before Trump, the U.S. had imposed some of the lowest tariffs in global economic history, the result of its postwar liberalization philosophy. The U.S. under Trump has used the negotiating power offered by those low tariffs to exact concessions from enemies and friends. Now, however, “China looks to have more leverage,” Capital Economics wrote in a report. “Higher tariffs haven’t stopped China’s exports from continuing to surge over the past year, and Beijing has showed that it is prepared to wait out U.S. pressure.”

    Semiconductors and Cars

    The rest of China’s trading partners gobbled up cars, semiconductors, and other high-tech goods the country is currently manufacturing. Shipments to the European Union increased 13.6% to $53 billion, and sales to ASEAN nations rose 15.4% to $69.5 billion. Exports to Brazil increased 37.1% to $7.8 billion. 

    Exports of “automatic data processing machines and parts thereof” increased 47.7% to $23.8 billion. Shipments of high-tech products spiked 39.3% to $104 billion. Exports of motor vehicles increased 44% to $16.1 billion. By contrast, sales of ag products increased 3.8% to $8.8 billion. 

    China’s Buying

    China’s economy imported $274.6 worth of goods in April, up 25.3% year-on-year, after rising 27.8% in March. The Wall Street Journal economists had predicted a rise of 16%.

    China is importing components for its booming tech industry. Imports of high-tech products rose 42.1% to $95.9 billion. Imports from the EU increased 14.6% to $23 billon, purchases from the U.S. increased 9.4% to $13.7 billion, and shipments from ASEAN countries rose 29.1% to $42.7 billion. Imports from India rose 32.3% to $2.3 billion. But there are signs that the Strait of Hormuz closure is having an impact. Imports of crude petroleum, most of it from the Middle East, dropped 19.9% to 38.5 million tons. Imports of natural gas, from countries like Russia, increased 83.1% to 8.4 million tons.

    As always, when he arrives in Beijing, President Trump will ask China to buy more American goods. With duties already on the board, and courts in the U.S. now limiting his tariff power, the trade war, if not over, has become much harder for the U.S. to fight. 

  • How AI Is Driving Global Trade

    How AI Is Driving Global Trade

    Lower Growth in China 

    In early March, Chinese leadership set their lowest gross domestic product growth target since 1991, forecasting a 4.5% to 5% expansion for its economy in 2026. 

    This week, China reported a 21.8% year-on-year increase in exports for January and February to $656.6 billion. To avoid distorted numbers because of Chinese New Year, the government in Beijing always reports combined trade data for the two months of the year. 

    This big increase handily beat analyst predictions, and, after a modest 6.6% year-on-year bump in December, defied aggressive action by the U.S. to curb commerce with China. 

    Part of the Chinese trade resurgence is due to an intentional strategy by Chinese policymakers to goose exports by cutting prices and finding new markets. Exports to ASEAN countries rose 29.4% to $112.6 billion, while shipments to the EU expanded 27.8% to $101 billion.

    The AI Global Trade Economy

    Another reason for the increase is the booming tech economy based around intense investments in artificial intelligence technology. China’s exports of integrated circuits, a category which includes the semiconductors used to power AI systems, increased 72.6% to $43.3 billion. Imports of those circuits jumped 39.8% to $78.2 billion.

    The AI buildout is happening around the world, and it’s changing the composition of the Chinese tech economy. Suppliers once flocked to China to manufacture finished consumer goods like smartphones. Now, they’re more likely to make electronic and industrial parts in China that then get finished in other countries. That’s why exports of mobile phones dropped 8.3% to $17.1 billion, even as overall shipments of high-tech products rose 26.9% to $167.2 billion. 

    One consumer product China is still dominating: Cars. Chinese exports of motor vehicles kept on vrooming upward, rising 57.9% to 1.5 million units. By value, they increased 67.1% to $27 billion. 

    China’s surplus only appears to be growing, raising the stakes around the world for protectionist policies. In 2025, China ran a record $1.2 trillion surplus. 

    U.S.-China Trade in Flux

    In one respect, the U.S. strategy to restrict trade is working: Exports to the U.S. dropped 11% to $67.2 billion. In February, the Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration was illegally using an emergency power to apply tariffs on foreign imports. In response, Trump promised to a standard 10% tariff that he will eventually bump up to 15%. That could end up helping China, as it lowers their tariff rate relative to other countries. 

    However, China has been ramping up exports to other countries. Sales to France rose 31.9% to $8.5 billion, exports to Italy leapt 36.4% to $9.9 billion, and shipments to Russia rose 22.7% to $18.3 billion. 

    China has abandoned the low-tech staples of its early economic development, but with so much capacity, there have been occasional resurgence in the manufacture and exports of some categories. Exports of furniture, for example, rose 24.7% to $12.4 billion. However, shipments of toys ticked up only 1.5% to $5.1 billion. 

    The Importance of the Chinese Consumer

    Despite the low growth expectations, total imports increased 19.8% to $443 billion. China’s consumers have more appetite, and money, for purchasing foreign goods. Policymakers in Beijing have been focused on getting consumers in China to spend and invest more. At the same time, exporting manufacturers need raw materials and parts for making their goods. Imports of high-tech products increased 27.7% to $139.8 billion. 

    One thing is certain: They’re not buying American. Imports from the U.S. fell 26.7% to $19.4 billon. Trump is due to visit China at the end of March. 

    By comparison, imports from the European Union increased 11.7% to $41.2 billion, and purchases from ASEAN nations rose 12.9% to $63.9 billion. One region increasingly benefitted from China’s importing strategy is Latin America. Imports, mostly of commodities like copper, iron ore, and soybeans, jumped 28.9% to $46.5 billion. Notably, imports from France rose 28.2% to $6.1 billion, and imports from Russia increased 4.1% to $20.8 billion. 

    One item China will likely have to import more of is petroleum, as the war in Iran scrambles supply routes around the Strait of Hormuz. In the first two months, China hiked imports of crude 15.8% to 96.9 million tons. 

  • Global Trade is Moving On — Without the U.S.

    Global Trade is Moving On — Without the U.S.

    One way of looking at China’s trade economy in December and for the full 2025 year is its export surge, amplified by a weak currency, deflation at home, and inflation in most of the rest of the world. China pumped up total monthly exports 6.6% to $357.8 billion in December from $335.6 billion over the same period in 2024. 

    Here’s another angle: Washington’s efforts to crimp Beijing’s industrial sector have resulted in diminished U.S.-China trade, but even bigger Chinese surpluses with the rest of the world, and evolutions in global trade that are simply leaving America behind. For the full year, China exported $3.8 trillion worth of goods. Minus imports, that made for a total surplus of $1.19 trillion, the biggest in recorded economic history. 

    Chinese officials themselves have drawn direct links between U.S. policy and its surplus, saying in effect that without tariffs, Beijing would have bought more goods from the rest of the world. “Some countries have politicized economic and trade issues and restricted exports of high-tech products to China for various reasons; otherwise, we would have imported even more,” Wang Jun, a Chinese trade official, told reporters Wednesday. 

    According to the Petersen Institute for international economics, U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports average around 47%, while China’s average tariffs on US exports are around 32%.

    The Chinese export juggernaut needs markets like nature abhors a vacuum, and it’s found new landing places for its voluminous container ships. Exports to the European Union increased 11.5% in December to $51.9 billion. Exports to Germany increased 13% to $11 billion. By comparison, exports to the U.S. fell 30.2% to $34.2 billon. We are seeing the wheels of human economic history turn in real time. Global trade is still inching upward every year. The rest of the world is getting on with it, leaving the U.S. behind. While ports on the East and West coasts slow their activity, they’re busy in Asia, Europe, Latin America and Africa. Exports to ASEAN nations increased 11.3% to $66.4 billion, including a 20.4% jump to Vietnam to $18.9 billion; shipments to Latin America rose 9.8% to $25.7 billion; and sales to India increased 22.1% to $12.8 billion.  

    The story of global trade right now is geopolitics. It’s the jolt of the U.S. away from its post-war free trade consensus. There is another story we’ve discussed here that is less surprising but still ongoing. It’s the move of China and other Asian countries up the value chain, away from toys and shoes and into tech and cars. At the same time, countries like Egypt, Bangladesh and Cambodia continue to build up their apparel and textile exports. 

    In December, Chinese exports of high-tech products increased 16.7% to $93.7 billion. Sales of motor vehicles increased 73.2% to 994,000. By value, they rose 71.7% to $17.1 billion. Exports of toys fell 19.4% to $2.7 billion. Shipments of footwear dropped 17.4% to $3.9 billion. 

    On the import side, China ramped up purchases 5.7% to $243.6 billion from $230.5 billion. The relationship with the EU seems more two-sided than in the past. Imports from the EU rose 17.9% to $26.9 billion, while purchases from the U.S. plummeted 28.6% to $10.9 billion. Imports from Germany increased 13.6% to $8.9 billion. Imports from Latin America increased 26.8% to $24.4 billion. Imports from India rose 56.5% to $2.2 billion.

    Buying more from Europe and Latin America was also at the expense of some Asian neighbors. Imports from ASEAN countries fell 5.1% to $35.7 billion. Even imports from Vietnam were flat at $9.5 billion. 

    Imports of high-tech products rose 13.6% to $82.6 billion. Purchases of soybeans increased 4.7% to $3.9 billion. China still needs a protein supply, and it’s getting it from Brazil instead of the U.S.

    One sign the Chinese economy is doing just fine: China ramped up purchases of natural resources. It increased quantities of imports of iron ore by 6.5%, copper 7.3%, coal 11.9%, oil 17.4%, and natural gas 90.2%.

  • TDM’s Top 10 Trade Trends to Watch in 2026

    TDM’s Top 10 Trade Trends to Watch in 2026

    Happy New Year. While we wait on the Supreme Court to rule whether the Trump administration is entitled to apply tariffs on national security grounds, global trade grinds on. We at Trade Data Monitor are paying attention to what’s happening via the prism of official trade statistics. It’s a radically different world than when I started covering trade for the Wall Street Journal 20 years ago. The biggest story is still in tech, where the economy is being transformed by investment in chips and other electronics used to make artificial intelligence systems. Shut out of the U.S., many Chinese exporters are finding new markets in Europe. Beijing is not giving up its export-dependent growth model, which in 2025 propelled the world’s first-ever trillion-dollar trade surplus. Via our system for reverse engineering trade data, we can discern that Russia’s import demand is shrinking. Vietnam is still climbing the economic ladder, thanks to an export portfolio that includes staples like toys and shoes, but also high-value electronics. Most of the world has not given up on trade. In October, global container volumes increased 2.1%. However, the U.S. is an outlier. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. saw an 8% contraction in inbound shipments. Although President Trump threatened much higher levies, the U.S. effective tariff rate is “only” around 15%. That’s its highest level since the 1930s, and it’s the main reason the WTO is now forecasting 0.5% growth in global trade in 2026, instead of 1.8%.Here are our top trade trends to watch in 2026.
    1.   The Asian Chip MiracleThe chip market is expected to reach around $750 billion in 2026 and hit $2 trillion by the early 2030s. In its latest incarnation that trend is being led by Asia. Eight of the world’s top 10 exporters of chips, classified under HS8541 and HS8542 are Asian. Only the U.S. and Germany crack the top 10. 
    Thanks in part to the chip industry, and parallel industries in batteries, engines and electronics, the electric vehicle industry is thriving. Slowly, the world’s road and filling stations are being rewired. In country after country, electric car imports have been increasing.  One consequence is booming trade in the critical minerals, like cobalt, manganese and nickel, needed to build electric cars and batteries. We’ll explore that trade in our February newsletter. 
    2.   China Finding Markets in EuropeWith the U.S. throwing up roadblocks, Chinese exporters have been finding markets in Europe. That’s triggered a crisis for European domestic manufacturers, who are now having to compete with the China price Americans have turned down.
    3.   Where is U.S.-China Trade Headed?The future of the U.S.-China trade relationship seems uncertain at best. When we added up total trade between the two behemoths, the only sector has grew in 2025 was aircraft. The U.S. shipped $12.5 billion of aircraft and aircraft parts to China in the first nine months of 2025, up 45% from the same period in 2024.
    4.   How Vietnam is Winning Global TradeAt TDM, we’ve been talking about Vietnam’s promise for a decade, so we’re not surprised to see its strong export numbers. The remarkable thing about Vietnam isn’t that it has become an export machine, it’s that its manufacturing capacity has increased across so broad a base. 5.   Russia’s Shrinking Import DemandRussia still isn’t publishing trade statistics, but thanks to the breadth of TDM’s database, we can look at which countries are shipping to Russia. Those exports to Russia are mostly shrinking, an indication of the battering Russia has been taking from the war. The IMF and other institutions predict Russian GDP growth of only around 1% in 2026. 
     6.   U.S. Imports from MexicoThe biggest beneficiary of the U.S.’s trade war with China has been Mexico. Although the two countries, and Canada, are now renegotiating the USMCA, businesses have had confidence they can manufacture in Mexico and ship north. Mexico has been suppressing data, but U.S. import statistics paint a picture.
    7.   Indian ExportsNow with the world’s biggest population, India has now overtaken Japan as the world’s fourth biggest economy, behind the U.S., China and Germany. Its top market: the U.S., followed by UAE and the Netherlands. 
    8.   Trade Case Study: EgyptTrade coverage focuses on the big countries, but we’ve been studying smaller players, and one interesting case study is Egypt. It’s been boosting apparel exports, a sign of a country’s increasing prosperity and competitiveness on export markets. In 2025, Egypt clocked the biggest increase in apparel exports, shipping out $2.6 billion in the first nine months of 2025, 30.7% more than the year before. The second highest increase was registered by Cambodia at 16.9%, and no other country improved by double digits. 9.   What States’ Ports and Economies Are Thriving MostAmerica is a huge continental economy with dozens of distinct economic regions and sea- and airports. We sorted every state by increase year-on-year in exports from the place it’s leaving the U.S., over the first nine months of 2025. Texas and California are still the biggest exporters overall, but New York leads the race in year-on, because of its trade in physical gold. Arizona ranks second because of its electronics trade with Mexico. Third is Indiana, thanks to its exports of hormones to Italy. 10.   U.S. Wine ExportsA retaliatory tariff and a “Buy Canadian” movement have dented U.S. wine exports to its northern neighbor. Instead, U.S. producers are finding replacement markets in Germany, South Africa and Japan. 
    5 News Stories To Understand This Moment in Global Trade 📰
      
    WSJ: A Shrimper, a Carmaker, a Lawyer: How the World Tackled Trump’s Trade War: A fascinating mini-survey of how businesses around the world are being impacted by tariffs.Euronews: In 2025, global trade cracked as Europe hurt by US tariffs and new China shock: An important perspective, from Europe, on how trade flows have been rerouted toward the Old World. Global Trade: U.S. Tariffs to Cost Container Carriers $.2 billion by 2026, Alphaliner Warns: The U.S. isn’t just imposing tariffs on goods, it’s putting duties on ships. AP: Trump launched global tariff wars in 2025. Here’s a recap of his trade actions this year: A useful recap of U.S. trade duties in 2025. BBC: Peru’s ‘fast and furious’ blueberry boom: An optimistic story about global trade, chronicling how Peru has become the world’s biggest blueberry exporter.
    What We’re Reading 📚
      With tariffs still beating down optimism over global trade, it’s easy to get dragged down by the political story of modern commerce. What’s lost is the triumph of human ingenuity represented by the global logistics industry figuring out how to move goods from any place in the world to any other place. My former Wall Street Journalcolleague Christopher Mims tells that story in his 2021 book Arriving Today: From Factory to Front Door—Why Everything Has Changed About How and What We Buy. In an illustrative anecdote, Mims tells the story of a USB charger. After leaving a factory in Vietnam, Mims recounts, the charger “has traveled more than 14,000 miles, across 12 times zones, by truck, barge, crane, container ship, crane, and truck again, all before it trundled down a few hundred yards of conveyor, flitted about on the back of a robot, and was ferried again on, all told, miles more conveyor and at least two more trucks, before being hand-carried to someone’s front door.”

  • Chinese Exports Down 1.1% in October

    Chinese Exports Down 1.1% in October

    The Chinese export juggernaut finally started to show the impact of protectionism and weaker Western consumer markets in October. 

    A week after Presidents Trump and Xi settled a new trade deal that cut tariffs and put off their trade war for a year, China reported a 1.1% year-on-year drop in exports to $305.3 billion. 

    To be sure, this is only one month. China has shown resiliency thus far in 2025, finding other markets as Washington puts up obstacles to its exports. Shipments to the U.S. have declining since the spring. In October, exports to the U.S. fell 25.1% year-on-year to $34.9 billion. But sale to the European Union, especially Germany and France, had been holding steady. In October, surprisingly, they rose only 1%, to $43.9 billion.

    Analysts had predicted a 3% overall increase in exports, meaning that China missed its target by 4 percentage points. 

    Much of the recent analysis has focused on protectionist trade policies driven by populist politics. Although they have caused headaches for businesses by creating a climate of uncertainty, real tariffs have been lower than headline duties. Instead, a big part of the leveling off of Chinese exports has been caused by a change in its export composition, and in consumer demand in the U.S. and Europe. That’s why there’s been dramatic drops in shipments of consumer goods where China used to dominate. In October, for example, toy exports fell a whopping 31% to $2.5 billion. Shoe sales dropped 20.9% to $2.7 billion. Suitcase exports declined 25.7% to $2.1 billion. It’s not just the low-tech stuff. The number of mobile phones shipped dropped 14.2% to 70.6 million. Exports of high-tech products increased a modest 1.8% to $83 billion. 

    Meanwhile, China is dominating new markets, especially in the automotive sector. Car shipments boomed again in October, rising 34.1% year-on-year to $14.3 billion. In Europe and the U.S., China still has to contend with strong domestic manufacturers. These exports tend to go elsewhere. China’s top 10 car markets so far this year: UAE, Russia, Belgium, UK, Mexico, Australia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Kazakhstan.  

    The bright spots: In October, shipments to ASEAN nations rose 11.1% to $53.3 billon; exports to Vietnam increased 22.4% to $16.6 billion. Exports to Africa rose 9.4% to $17.7 billion. Exports to Latin America increased 2.2% to $24.1 billion. Exports to Russia, however, plummeted 22.5% to $8.5 billion. 

    The slowdown in trade poses a challenge for Chinese policymakers. “As exports rapidly lose steam and retail sales show signs of deterioration, we see increasing pressure on Beijing to step up policy support to stabilize growth” until the end of 2025, Nomura wrote in a note.

    Domestically, there are certainly questions. 

    In October, imports rose only 1% to $215.3 billion, raising questions about domestic demand. Imports of agricultural products rose 7.1% to $17.2 billion. Purchases of high-tech products rose by 3.1% to $69.9 billion. 

    Imports from the U.S. declined 22.5% to $10.2 billion. Imports from the EU rose 4% to $22.1 billion. Imports from ASEAN countries fell 4.6% to $32.5 billion. Purchases from Africa increased 5.4% to $9.7 billion. Imports from Latin America, goosed by soybean sales, were up 15.1% to $21.5 billion. Imports from Russia rose 0.9% to $11 billion. 

    Beijing has reported GDP growth of 5.2% over the first nine months of the year, and seems on track to hit the government’s 5% goal for the year. 

    One good sign is the country’s appetite for industrial commodities: Imports of copper and iron ore rose year-on-year in October, as did purchases of natural gas and crude oil. Imports of coal continued to fall sharply.

  • Steel Trade Trends in 2025

    Steel Trade Trends in 2025

    Shake-up in Global Steel

    The world of steel trade is in for a shake-up. New climate rules in Europe, the prospect of ramped-up U.S. tariffs on steel and an excess of Chinese steel imports mean companies around the world must calibrate their trade strategies in 2024.  

    With the U.S. locked in protectionism and the EU implementing climate rules, the action is shifting to countries like Turkey and Asian markets such as the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea.

    The Turkish Solution

    The world’s top importers of iron and steel (HS72), including scrap, during the first eight months of 2024 were Turkey (26.2 million tons), Italy (16.1 million tons), the U.S. (16 million tons), China (15.1 million tons), India (14 million tons), South Korea (11.9 million tons), Spain (9.7 million tons), Thailand (9.6 million tons), and Indonesia (8.7 million tons).

    Turkey’s top categories of iron and steel imports were scrap (13.5 million tons), semifinished products (4.2 million tons), flat-rolled (2.9 million tons), flat-rolled alloy (1 million tons), and pig iron (879,098 tons). Turkey’s best suppliers of iron and steel are the U.S. (3.1 million tons), Russia (3 million tons), China (2.3 million tons).

    Trump is Back

    The biggest news of 2024 is the re-election of so-called Tariff Man Donald Trump to the White House. Trump has promised to install 60% tariffs on all goods imported from China and 10% tariffs on goods imported from all over the world. Trump already imposed steel and aluminum duties during his first term that the Biden administration lifted in 2021. The moves increased costs for industries such as cars, machinery, appliances and infrastructure products made with imported steel.

    The U.S. imported $24.1 billion worth of iron and steel in the first nine months of 2024. Its top partners were Canada ($5.9 billion), Brazil ($3.7 billion), Mexico ($2.4 billion), South Korea ($1.4 billion) and Germany ($1.1 billion). By quantity, the U.S.’s top categories of iron and steel imports are flat-rolled clad, plated or coated (3.6 million tons), semifinished (2.8 million tons), and flat-rolled not clad, plated or coated (2.1 million tons).

    Europe’s Calling Card

    Don’t count out Europe.  In the first eight months of 2024, European iron and steel importers amounted to 34.7 million tons, up 3.3% from 2023. The top foreign markets were Russia (4 MT), India (3.5 MT), Turkey (3.3 MT), Ukraine (2.4 MT), and China (2.3 MT). That’s down from 52.3 million tons in 2017, the first year of the Trump presidency. Europe’s top iron and steel export markets were Turkey (8.8 million tons), the UK (2.5 million tons), the U.S. (2.4 million tons), Egypt (1.6. million tons), and Switzerland (1.5 million tons).

    China’s Oversupply

    China, of course, still reigns supreme atop the global steel industry. The country has been hit by a property bubble forcing excess steel capacity onto global markets. In November, the country announced a stimulus package over a trillion dollars, which should absorb more production.

    During the first eight months of 2024, the top exporters of iron and steel (HS72) in 2024 were China (64 million tons in the first eight months), the EU (34.7 million tons), Japan (24.4 million tons), South Korea (17.2 million tons), Indonesia (13.8 million tons), Brazil (9.9 million tons), Turkey (9.1 million tons), Iran (8.3 million tons), and India (8 million tons).

    The Flat-Rolled Market

    China is the world’s top exporters of flat-rolled iron or nonalloy steel products (HS7208), shipping out 21.9 million tons in the first eight months of 2024, ahead of Japan (9.9 million tons), South Korea (5.6 million tons), Turkey (2.1 million tons), India (2 million tons), and the U.S. (1.1 million tons).

    The biggest importers were South Korea (3.6 million tons), Turkey (2.9 million tons), India (2.7 million tons), the U.S. (1.9 million tons), Malaysia (1.7 million tons), Thailand (1.6 million tons), Mexico (1.5 million tons), Indonesia (1.4 million tons), and Japan (1.3 million tons). By comparison, in 2015, the U.S. imported 4.3 million tons of flat-rolled over the same time period.

    John W. Miller

  • Trump Election Gooses Trade– Before Tariffs Hit

    Trump Election Gooses Trade– Before Tariffs Hit

    This week’s election of Donald Trump as the U.S.’s 47th president is almost certainly likely to lead to another trade war with China, and further tariffs on American imports. During the campaign, Trump said his favorite word was tariff and floated a universal 10% tariff and specific duties on Chinese imports as high as 60%.

    If applied, the levies would jack up average tariffs to 17.7%, America’s highest rate since 1934, during the Great Depression, according to the Tax Foundation, representing a sharp turn toward deglobalization, and a potential deflation of China’s powerful export economy. 

    The affirmation of Trump’s election this week will accelerate a trend international manufacturers and purchasers worried about the risk of tariffs have already set in motion—increased exports, especially from China to the U.S. and Europe, before the tariffs hit sometime during the course of next year.

    In October, China increased its overall outbound shipments a whopping 12.7% year-on-year to $309.1 billion, their briskest pace in more than two years. At the same time, imports declined 2.3% to $213.3 billion. The lackluster import figures point to potential weaknesses China’s domestic economy.

    That makes taking advantage of current trade terms with the U.S., China’s number one export market, even more urgent. Exports to the U.S. increased 8.1% in October to $46.7 billion. Interestingly, imports from the U.S. grew 6.6% to $13.2 billion, making it one of the only regions to increase exports to China in October. Beijing is almost certain to retaliate next year with tariffs on U.S. imports, kicking off a new, heightened trade war. “Trump’s return could create a short-term boost to Chinese exports as U.S. importers increase their purchases to get ahead of tariffs,” wrote Zichun Huang of Capital Economics in a research note.

    The U.S., of course, is not the only economic power ramping up protectionism. This year, the European Union and Canada also imposed tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles. Officials in those jurisdictions are expected to further hike duties, heightening the urgency of making shipments. Exports to the European Union rose 12.6% to $43.5 billion, while imports from the EU fell 6.1% to $21.3 billion. Overall, China exports around a trillion dollars of goods annually, roughly 30% of its overall exports, to the U.S. and Europe. 

    In October, Chinese exports rose across the board for all kinds of goods. Shipments of agricultural products rose 11% to $9.2 billion. Sales of high-tech products increased 9.3% to $81.6 billion. Exports of toys rose 4.1% to $3.7 billion. Exports of motor vehicles grew 4% to $10.7 billion. A couple exceptions: shipments of mobile phones declined 0.4% to $18.6 billion, and sales of footwear fell 1.1% to $3.4 billion.

    With trading partner after trading partner, China ramped up its trade surplus. Exports to ASEAN nations, which are part of a new Asian supply chain network, increased 16.2% to $48 billion, while imports fell 7% to $34 billion. Exports to Africa increased 21.1% to $16 billion, while imports shrank 8.2% to $9.2 billion. Exports to Russia increased 26.7% to $11 billon, part of an integration of the two massive economies since Russia invaded Ukraine. Imports, however, fell 3.9% to $10.8 billion. Exports to Latin America increased 23.1% to $23.6 billion, while imports fell 10.4% to $18.6 billion

    Imports of ag products fell 4.9% to $16 billion. Shipments to China of high-tech products rose 9.1% to $67.9 billion. Imports of natural gas rose 27.1% to $5.4 billion. Imports of coal rose 14.4% to $4.1 billion. 

    This week, Beijing is set to announce a new package of stimulus measures. One sign it might need it: It is the world’s number one energy importer, and in October Imports of oil dropped 25.3% year-on-year to $24.3 billion by value and 8.7% by quantity to 44.7 million tons.

    John W. Miller

  • China Finally Affected by Protectionist Tariffs

    China Finally Affected by Protectionist Tariffs

    September Rain

    China posted lackluster trade figures in September, highlighting how it might become slowly less reliant on global commerce as other major economies retrench.

    Chinese exports increased 2.4% year-on-year, below economists’ expectations of around 6%, to $303.7 billion, while imports increased only 0.3% to $222 billon.

    The 2024 Boom

    For most of 2024, Chinese exports and imports have been among the world’s best performing, despite aggressive protectionist tariff actions by U.S. and European governments. In August, for example, Chinese exports rose 8.7% year-on-year. Modern China, the greatest exporting power the world’s ever known, wasn’t going down so easily.

    That changed in September. “After the stellar run in 2024, China’s exports finally face a wake-up call from global trade protectionism and overcapacity, affecting sales quantity and unit value,” Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis, told the South China Morning Post. “The weaker import data shows domestic demand has not recovered with cautious household and business sentiments regarding consumption and investment.” Chinese customs officials also pointed to typhoons in Asian ports, congestion in the shipping industry and the high trade volumes of previous years.

    EU Slump

    The bigger picture, however, is more complex. In particular, China’s September data point to a loosening of ties with the European Union. Shipments to the EU rose 1.9% to $42.1 billon while imports fell 3.2% to $23 billon. Imports from France fell 11.1% to $2.9 billion.  Shipments from Italy declined 7.8% to $2 billion.

    By comparison, exports to the U.S. rose 2.9% to $47 billion, while shipments from the U.S. rose 6.6% to $13.7 billion. Exports to ASEAN countries increased 7.2% to $46.4 billion. Imports rose 4.3% to $36.8 billion. Imports from Brazil fell 14.1% to $9.8 billion. 

    China continues to buy large quantities of industrial fuel and metals, although prices have been declining. It will always need raw materials to power its cities, cars and buildings. Imports of iron ore rose 3.2% to 104.1 million tons by quantity but fell 11.5% by value to $9.9 billion.  Imports of copper rose 8.7% by quantity to 2.4 million tons and 22.9% by value to $5.9 billion.

    Domestic Economy

    The domestic manufacturing economy is likely to supply more demand locally instead of shipping overseas. Exports of plastics products fell 4.9% to $8 billion. Exports of toys declined 6.1% to $4.1 billion. Shipments of mobile phones fell 4.9% to $15.1 billion. Shipments of footwear fell 12.8% $3.3 billion. Exports of furniture fell 9.7% to $4.7 billion. Shipments of high-tech products were basically flat, declining 0.7% to $80.6 billion.

    There are a few niche segments that bucked the trend and recorded strong increases in September. Exports of household appliances rose 5.2% to $8.6 billion, and sales of motor vehicles rose 25.7% to $11.6 billion. The rise of the Chinese auto industry, geared toward exporting electric vehicles, continues to be one of the driving forces in modern global trade. The U.S., the EU and Canada have all imposed import tariffs on Chine EVs in 2024. More protectionist action is expected around the world.

    Hi-Tech Supply Chain Intact

    China also needs to keep importing pieces and parts for its supply chains making smart phones and computers. Imports of high-tech products rose 10.5% to $69.7 billion.

    Inflation has been falling rapidly in China, pointing to the end of the Covid-19 pandemic and weakening consumer demand. One sector where prices fell the most was pharmaceutical. Imports rose 23.2% by quantity to 42,217 tons but dropped 1.6% to $4.1 billon by value. 

    The future of the Chinese economy is likely to look much different than it has in the first quarter of the 21st century. The government has announced programs to boost demand, including spending over $25 billion on construction. Officials say they are considering further moves.

    John W. Miller

  • What’s Behind the High-Tech Trade Slump?

    What’s Behind the High-Tech Trade Slump?

    It’s not been an easy time for international trade, as a recent report co-authored by Trade Data Monitor and the World Intellectual Property Organization found.

    High-tech exports are set to decline by 4 percent in 2023, according to the TDM/WIPO analysis. Global and high-tech trade have soared and sunk like rollercoasters since 2019. After the strong post-pandemic recovery in 2021 followed by a slowdown in 2022, total merchandise trade is expected to grow at a meagre 0.8 percent in 2023.

    Changing global value chains and geopolitical tensions are driving some of the trade slowdown, as well as inflation which is increasing the costs of traded high-tech goods. The development of new sectors, particularly in the manufacturing of renewable energies, batteries and electric vehicles, helps mitigate the high-tech growth slump, however.

    The key player, as a consumer and manufacturer, is still China, and Chinese high-tech exports fell 11.4% to USD 728.2 billion in the first 10 months of 2023. The country’s smartphone exports fell by close to 7% to USD 106.8 billion, and sales of its data processing machines dropped 24% to USD 82.8 billion (see Figure 3). Shipments to many of China’s traditional trading partners dropped. Exports to the U.S. fell by 21% to USD 102.7 billion; to the Republic of Korea by 13.4% to USD 33.9 billion, and to the Netherlands by close to 20% to USD 33 billion. Still, despite the decline, China is the leading high-tech exporter by far.

    Other Asian economies also experienced high-tech export declines. Exports of the Republic of Korea, for example, declined by 28% to USD 110 billion. Japanese exports fell 10% to USD 76.9 billion. Viet Nam’s export fared better, falling 1.7% to USD 115 billion in the first nine months of 2023.

    By contrast, U.S. high-tech exports rose 4.4% to USD 282.5 billion. Shipments to Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium all rose by double digits. U.S. exports of smartphones, routers, board and panels, parts for gas turbines, and computers all increased.

    Germany’s high-tech exports rose 6.6% to USD 217.4 billion over the first ten months of 2023. Exports of big airplanes rose 26.8% to USD 19.7 billion, shipments of immunological products rose 9.4% to USD 24.5 billion, and sales of processors and controllers, electric integrated circuits jumped 23.5% to USD 9.6 billion. And France’s high-tech exports increased 2.7% to USD 97.7 billion, thanks to increases in shipments of airplanes (up 16.9% to USD 19.7 billion), electronic integrated circuits (up 16.9% to USD 5.6 billion), and spacecraft, including satellites (up 438.4% to USD 2.1 billion). 

    Other fast-growing high-tech exporters in Europe include Austria, Hungary and Poland. Austria’s high-tech exports rose 16.9% to USD 22.1. billion in the first 10 months of 2023, thanks to hikes in shipments of anti-serum, up 26.7% to USD 3.8 billion, electrical panels, up 17.3% to USD 983 million, and transistors, up 40.8% to USD 650.1 million.

    Hungary’s high-tech exports increased 10.8% to USD 20 billion, on the back of sales of processors, up 11.2% to USD 2.3 billion, routers, up 27% to USD 1.7 billion, and smartphones, up 99.7% to USD 1.1 billion. Polish high-tech shipments increased 7% to USD 29.5 billion thanks to sales of data processing machines, airplane parts and hearing aids.

    John W. Miller

  • China Hikes Iron Ore, Copper Imports Amid Car Building Boom

    China Hikes Iron Ore, Copper Imports Amid Car Building Boom

    In the somewhat gloomy December and annual China trade statistics released in the second week of January was buried a piece of data that hearkened back to the boom years of Chinese commodity consumption: China is buying a lot more iron ore and copper.

    In December, China boosted iron ore imports 11.1% year-on-year to 100.9 million tons, worth $12.4 billion. Copper imports rose 18.2% to 2.5 million tons, worth $5.3 billon. These confirmed ongoing trends. For all of 2023, iron ore imports rose 6.6% to 1.2 billion tons, worth $134 billion. For the year, copper purchases rose 9.1% to 27.5 million tons, worth $60.1 billion.

    But the reasons for the big increase is no longer buildings and highways of a society punching its way into to global prosperity as it was in the early 2000s. Instead, these rising industrial commodity purchases are underpinned by China’s booming automobile and shipbuilding industries. Car exports rose 52% year-on-year in December to $8.9 billion. China, in fact, is set to pass Japan this year as the world’s number one auto exporter. Exports of ships, a related industry, increased 28.6% to $3.2 billion. 

    The headline numbers were less bullish, but perhaps not as bad as many feared, for China and the global economy. Total exports rose only 2.3% in December to $303.6 billion from $296.9 billion a year ago. For the year, exports dropped 4.6% to $3.4 trillion, a decline Chinese officials attributed to a faltering global economy. “The global economic recovery has been weak in the past year,” Lyu Daliang, a government spokesperson. “Sluggish external demand has hit China’s exports. Exports to the U.S. dropped 4.8% to $42.2 billion. Exports to ASEAN countries improved 0.4% to $50.2 billion. Exports to the EU dropped 1% to $42.8 billon. 

    Among the bright spots in partner countries, Chinese exports to India increased 8.5% to $10.5 billion, shipment to Russia increased 22.5% to $10.7 billion, and sales to Africa increased 9.5% to $15.3 billion. 

    There was a recovery in high-tech trade, driven by more demand for semiconductors and digital equipment. The work from home economy driven by the Covid-19 pandemic has subsided some, but it’s caused enough structural changes to undergird a new tech economy. For December, shipments of high-tech products increased 0.5% year-on-year to $77 billion, suggesting that the sector might be turning a corner after a dismal year. For all of 2023, high-tech exports dropped 10.8% year-on-year to $842.5 billion.

    Industrial commodities dented exports more than high-tech trade. China shrank exports of petroleum products 39.8% to 4.7 million tons. By value, they decreased 42.7% to $3.7 billion. Exports of fertilizers fell 26.8% to $707 million. Exports of steel products rose 45.4% to 7.7 million tons but they were sold at a discount. By value, they declined 8.7% to $6.4 million.

    The increases in copper and iron ore purchases were among outliers in Chinese imports. Total imports increased 0.2% to $228.3 billion from $227.9 billion. For the year, imports declined 5.5% to $2.6 trillion. China increased imports from the EU 0.4% to $24 billon. Imports from the U.S. dropped 4.3% to $14.9 billon. Imports from ASEAN countries fell 2.4% to $35.7 billion. There were a few bright spots among trading partners. Imports from India rose 24.1% to $1.5 billion. Imports from Russia increased 23.1% to $11.2 billion. Imports from Africa rose 4.3% to $8.8 billion. 

    And China’s appetite for coal, driven largely by demand from new power plants generating power for cities and a new generation of electric vehicles, showed no signs of abating. China increased coal imports 53% to 47.3 million tons, and by value 22.8% to $5.2 billion. For the year, China hiked purchases of the black rock 61.8% to 474.4 million tons, worth $53 billions.

    John W. Miller

  • Trade Data Monitor’s Top 10 Trade Trends Going Into 2024

    Trade Data Monitor’s Top 10 Trade Trends Going Into 2024

    It’s not an easy time for global trade–the roughly $25 trillion piece of the $105 trillion world economy. Protectionism is roaring in the U.S. and Europe, causing geopolitical tension with China. Inflation across most of the world has shrunk consumers’ wallets and imports, while deflation in China is also scaring businesses. Asian supply chains are slumping. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the late 2023 conflict in Israel-Palestine has created more business uncertainty, danger for container ships transiting the Red Sea, and geopolitical tension. And then there’s the structural shifts in supply chains that have raised fears of deglobalization. That is probably less of a risk that people think. “We do see some signs in the data of trade fragmentation linked to geopolitical tensions,” said WTO chief economist Ralph Ossa. “Fortunately, broader deglobalization is not here yet. The data suggest that goods continue to be produced through complex supply chains, but that the extent of these chains may have plateaued, at least in the short run.” In other words, this is a time of change, more reason than ever to pay close attention to trends.

    Here are Trade Data Monitor’s top 10 ongoing trade trends at the start of 2024:

    1. Trade Crisis: Protectionism, price swings (inflation in the U.S. and Europe, deflation in China) and geopolitical tensions have created an uncertain environment for trade. The World Trade Organization now forecasts global trade to grow by only 0.8% in 2023, less than half the 1.7% increase predicted in April. For 2024, the WTO expects an increase of 3.3%, a modest recovery, but below the trend in the early 2000s.
    2. The COVID Effect: The COVID-19 pandemic depressed trade in 2020-2023, but now it’s triggered a booming in shipments of vaccines and medical test kits. The U.S. increased imports of medical test kits 46% to $44.7 billion in the 10 months of 2023. The top exporters of medical test kids are Switzerland (up 12% to $39.3 billion), Germany (up 9% to $24.5 billion), and the U.S. (up 11% to $16 billion), followed by Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands.
    3. China Problem: It used to be that you could count on death, taxes and an uptick in Chinese exports. That’s no longer the case. Manufacturers have diversified their supply chains, consumers aren’t buying enough, and tariffs and export restrictions are rising. The upshot: In the first 11 months of 2023, Chinese exports declined 4% to $3.1 trillion. Exports to the U.S. over that time fell 13% to $463.7 billion.
    4. Asia’s Slump: China wasn’t the only Asian country to suffer declining exports. Singapore’s shipments fell 9.3% to $395.5 billion, South Korean exports declined 10% to $519.3 billion, and Japan’s sales fell 4.6% to $591.4 billion, and Taiwan’s exports fell 12.6% to $354.2 billion in the first 10 months of 2023.
    5. U.S. and European Rebound: The situation has been better for the U.S. and Europe. Supply chains are adjusting away from China, benefitting U.S. and European trade. Germany’s exports rose 1.5% to $1.4 trillion and French shipments increased 5.3% to $527.9 billion in the first 10 months of 2023. U.S exports declined 2.4% overall to $1.7 trillion, but that was mainly because of a decline in fuel prices. Shipments of electronics, machinery, cars, airplanes and pharmaceuticals all increased.
    6. Don’t Take Your Eye Off Electric Cars: Electric cars might be the most significant trade product in the world right now. Germany (up 86% in the first nine months of 2023 to $30.4 billion), China (up 112% to $25.1 billion), Belgium (up 78.1% to $13.3 billion), South Korea (up 89% to $10.4 billion) and the U.S. (up 41.4% to $5.8 billion) are leading the charge.
    7. The Energy Revolution: Investments in green energy, driven by governments and consumer demand, are propelling new trade flows. For example, U.S. imports of solar panels and related parts increased 70.1% to $19.5 billion in the first 10 months of 2023.
    8. Russia-China Trade: The huge boom in Russia-China trade, triggered by the war in Ukraine and subsequent U.S. and European sanctions, is still going on but it is finally showing signs of tapering off. Russia is now China’s sixth biggest source of imports and sixth biggest export destination. But after triple-digit increases in 2022, monthly increases are finally dropping. For example, in November 2023, Chinese exports to Russia increased 35% to $10.3 billion.  
    9. Regional Trade Boom: We’re seeing a healthy boom in regional trade networks. One example is the Middle East. For example, Iranian exports to Iraq (+73%) and Turkey (+32%) increased but the country’s shipments to China fell 16.3% in the first nine month of 2023. And the increases weren’t only driven by higher oil prices. Iran increased its oil exports to Iraq 332.8% to 88.4 million barrels in the first nine months of 2023.
    10. China is Buying All the Coal: While much of the rest of the world is trying to wean itself from fossil fuels, especially the dirtiest one, coal, China is ramping up imports. Ironically, it needs coal partly to power a new generation of power plants pumping out electricity for electric car batteries. In the first 10 months of 2023, it hiked purchases of the black rock 38% to $33.5 billion by value, and 96.6% by quantity to 250.3 million tons.

    John W. Miller is Trade Data Monitor’s Chief Economic Analyst, in charge of writing TDM Insights, a newsletter analyzing key issues through trade statistics. John is an award-winning journalist who’s reported from 45 countries for the Wall Street Journal, Time Magazine, and NPR.

  • TDM Data Used to Scrutinize Impact of Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

    TDM Data Used to Scrutinize Impact of Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

    Trade scholars in a recent paper used Trade Data Monitor data on steel and aluminum trade to gauge the impact of 2018-2019 protectionist measures on U.S. and European Union imports.

    The paper by Simon Evenett and Fernando Martin, published by the Center for European Policy Research, found that because the U.S. and European Union import relatively small quantities of Chinese metals, “limited EU and US leverage is unlikely to change investment plans of Chinese steel producers.” If the U.S. and EU raise tariffs, Chinese exports will be redirected to “third markets – and this may not be without cost to Chinese firms that may have to accept lower export prices.”

    For example, China accounted for only 11% of U.S. aluminum imports and 2% of steel imports in 2022, according to TDM data.

    The U.S. and EU have been negotiating a new agreement on steel and aluminum trade known as the Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum, to “address carbon emissions on steel and aluminum” while restoring “market-oriented conditions.”

    The paper found that “while EU and US purchases of steel and aluminum account for half of world imports, so diversified are China’s exports that transatlantic leverage over Chinese producers is likely to disappoint. Further trade deflection, not accelerated Chinese decarbonisation, is the likely outcome of any climate-related sectoral trade deal.”