Trade Data Monitor

Industry: Mining

  • Vietnam’s Superpower: Versatility

    Vietnam’s Superpower: Versatility

    Vietnam’s Moment in (Trade) Time

    The wars in Iran and Ukraine, and trade turmoil around the world, especially involving the U.S. and China, have obscured what continues to be one of the essential trade stories of the century: Vietnam’s export growth.

    The Asian country of 102 million has staged an epic comeback since the 1970s and 1980s, and has now climbed within the top 20 rankings for world’s top exporters, surpassing economic titans like Australia, India and Brazil.

    In 2025, Vietnamese exports increased 21.1% to $466.6 billion. That’s more than twelve times the amount exported in 2019, the first full year for which TDM has data. Vietnam exported $38 billion worth of goods that year.

    Vietnam’s Superpower: Versatility

    The secret is the complex product mix of Vietnam’s export capacity, as demonstrated by statistics from Trade Data Monitor and a report published in February by Harvard.

    Vietnam exported over a billion dollars worth of goods in 28 different export categories. For example, Vietnam exported a billion dollars worth of headgear. It also exported almost $7 billion of seafood, $15.7 billion of furniture, and $24.8 billion of shoes.

    However, it’s Vietnam’s integration into the global electronics and high-tech supply chain that has really goosed Vietnam’s numbers. The country exported $161.9 billion worth of electronics and high-tech goods in 2025, making it the seventh biggest exporter in the world, behind only China, Taiwan, South Korea, the U.S., Singapore and Germany.

    Kudos from Harvard

    That’s impressive for sure, but it’s the variety and complexity of Vietnam’s export machine that led by Harvard in February to put Vietnam on the same level as China in driving growth.

    “Vietnam and China are positioned to lead global growth,” the report said. “The findings forecast that economies that built complex productive capabilities will drive the world’s economic expansion for the coming decade, even as riding trade tensions threaten to disrupt their growth trajectories.”

    Vietnam, the report said, is expected to “lead all nations in GDP per capita growth, followed closely by China, a remarkable forecast for the world’s second-largest economy.” Vietnam’s GDP per capita is project to be around $5,000 in 2025, and is expected to rise to reach $8,500 by 2030.

    The two countries will lead global growth because they have “diversified their production into more complex sectors,” said Ricardo Hausmann, director of Harvard’s Growth Lab.”

    Selling Around the World

    It’s not just the products that span a wide variety of possibility. It’s also the markets. In 2025, Vietnam exported over a billion dollars of goods to 36 countries around the world, including nations as different from each other as Sweden, Turkey, and Laos.

    Shipments to the U.S. rose 31% to $148.9 billion. The second biggest export destination was China, worth less than half of that, up 17.8% to $64.4 billion. After China came South Korea (up 16.8% to $29.5 billion), Japan (up 12.3% to $27.5 billon) and the Netherlands (up 4.7% to $13.7 billion).

    Vietnam is Also Buying

    Vietnam’s total imports rose 18.7% to $483.5 billion. The country imported over a billion dollars worth of goods from 30 countries. Imports from China bumped up 28.2% to $191.5 billion. Shipments from South Korea increased 9.3% to $63.9 billion. Imports from Taiwan increased 46.3% to $33.8 billion. While the biggest export market, the U.S. is the fourth biggest source of imports. Vietnam imported $31.4 billon from the U.S., up 16.3% from 2024. The fifth biggest source of imports was Japan. Vietnam imported $26.5 billion worth of goods from Japan, up 12.8%.

    Vietnams’s top import in 2025 was electronics (up 35.2% to $186.7 billion). Almost half those imports came from China. Vietnam also imported $91.6 billion in parts used to make electronic integrated circuits. Most of those came from three countries: South Korea, China and Taiwan.

  • Global Trade is Moving On — Without the U.S.

    Global Trade is Moving On — Without the U.S.

    One way of looking at China’s trade economy in December and for the full 2025 year is its export surge, amplified by a weak currency, deflation at home, and inflation in most of the rest of the world. China pumped up total monthly exports 6.6% to $357.8 billion in December from $335.6 billion over the same period in 2024. 

    Here’s another angle: Washington’s efforts to crimp Beijing’s industrial sector have resulted in diminished U.S.-China trade, but even bigger Chinese surpluses with the rest of the world, and evolutions in global trade that are simply leaving America behind. For the full year, China exported $3.8 trillion worth of goods. Minus imports, that made for a total surplus of $1.19 trillion, the biggest in recorded economic history. 

    Chinese officials themselves have drawn direct links between U.S. policy and its surplus, saying in effect that without tariffs, Beijing would have bought more goods from the rest of the world. “Some countries have politicized economic and trade issues and restricted exports of high-tech products to China for various reasons; otherwise, we would have imported even more,” Wang Jun, a Chinese trade official, told reporters Wednesday. 

    According to the Petersen Institute for international economics, U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports average around 47%, while China’s average tariffs on US exports are around 32%.

    The Chinese export juggernaut needs markets like nature abhors a vacuum, and it’s found new landing places for its voluminous container ships. Exports to the European Union increased 11.5% in December to $51.9 billion. Exports to Germany increased 13% to $11 billion. By comparison, exports to the U.S. fell 30.2% to $34.2 billon. We are seeing the wheels of human economic history turn in real time. Global trade is still inching upward every year. The rest of the world is getting on with it, leaving the U.S. behind. While ports on the East and West coasts slow their activity, they’re busy in Asia, Europe, Latin America and Africa. Exports to ASEAN nations increased 11.3% to $66.4 billion, including a 20.4% jump to Vietnam to $18.9 billion; shipments to Latin America rose 9.8% to $25.7 billion; and sales to India increased 22.1% to $12.8 billion.  

    The story of global trade right now is geopolitics. It’s the jolt of the U.S. away from its post-war free trade consensus. There is another story we’ve discussed here that is less surprising but still ongoing. It’s the move of China and other Asian countries up the value chain, away from toys and shoes and into tech and cars. At the same time, countries like Egypt, Bangladesh and Cambodia continue to build up their apparel and textile exports. 

    In December, Chinese exports of high-tech products increased 16.7% to $93.7 billion. Sales of motor vehicles increased 73.2% to 994,000. By value, they rose 71.7% to $17.1 billion. Exports of toys fell 19.4% to $2.7 billion. Shipments of footwear dropped 17.4% to $3.9 billion. 

    On the import side, China ramped up purchases 5.7% to $243.6 billion from $230.5 billion. The relationship with the EU seems more two-sided than in the past. Imports from the EU rose 17.9% to $26.9 billion, while purchases from the U.S. plummeted 28.6% to $10.9 billion. Imports from Germany increased 13.6% to $8.9 billion. Imports from Latin America increased 26.8% to $24.4 billion. Imports from India rose 56.5% to $2.2 billion.

    Buying more from Europe and Latin America was also at the expense of some Asian neighbors. Imports from ASEAN countries fell 5.1% to $35.7 billion. Even imports from Vietnam were flat at $9.5 billion. 

    Imports of high-tech products rose 13.6% to $82.6 billion. Purchases of soybeans increased 4.7% to $3.9 billion. China still needs a protein supply, and it’s getting it from Brazil instead of the U.S.

    One sign the Chinese economy is doing just fine: China ramped up purchases of natural resources. It increased quantities of imports of iron ore by 6.5%, copper 7.3%, coal 11.9%, oil 17.4%, and natural gas 90.2%.

  • TDM’s Top 10 Trade Trends to Watch in 2026

    TDM’s Top 10 Trade Trends to Watch in 2026

    Happy New Year. While we wait on the Supreme Court to rule whether the Trump administration is entitled to apply tariffs on national security grounds, global trade grinds on. We at Trade Data Monitor are paying attention to what’s happening via the prism of official trade statistics. It’s a radically different world than when I started covering trade for the Wall Street Journal 20 years ago. The biggest story is still in tech, where the economy is being transformed by investment in chips and other electronics used to make artificial intelligence systems. Shut out of the U.S., many Chinese exporters are finding new markets in Europe. Beijing is not giving up its export-dependent growth model, which in 2025 propelled the world’s first-ever trillion-dollar trade surplus. Via our system for reverse engineering trade data, we can discern that Russia’s import demand is shrinking. Vietnam is still climbing the economic ladder, thanks to an export portfolio that includes staples like toys and shoes, but also high-value electronics. Most of the world has not given up on trade. In October, global container volumes increased 2.1%. However, the U.S. is an outlier. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. saw an 8% contraction in inbound shipments. Although President Trump threatened much higher levies, the U.S. effective tariff rate is “only” around 15%. That’s its highest level since the 1930s, and it’s the main reason the WTO is now forecasting 0.5% growth in global trade in 2026, instead of 1.8%.Here are our top trade trends to watch in 2026.
    1.   The Asian Chip MiracleThe chip market is expected to reach around $750 billion in 2026 and hit $2 trillion by the early 2030s. In its latest incarnation that trend is being led by Asia. Eight of the world’s top 10 exporters of chips, classified under HS8541 and HS8542 are Asian. Only the U.S. and Germany crack the top 10. 
    Thanks in part to the chip industry, and parallel industries in batteries, engines and electronics, the electric vehicle industry is thriving. Slowly, the world’s road and filling stations are being rewired. In country after country, electric car imports have been increasing.  One consequence is booming trade in the critical minerals, like cobalt, manganese and nickel, needed to build electric cars and batteries. We’ll explore that trade in our February newsletter. 
    2.   China Finding Markets in EuropeWith the U.S. throwing up roadblocks, Chinese exporters have been finding markets in Europe. That’s triggered a crisis for European domestic manufacturers, who are now having to compete with the China price Americans have turned down.
    3.   Where is U.S.-China Trade Headed?The future of the U.S.-China trade relationship seems uncertain at best. When we added up total trade between the two behemoths, the only sector has grew in 2025 was aircraft. The U.S. shipped $12.5 billion of aircraft and aircraft parts to China in the first nine months of 2025, up 45% from the same period in 2024.
    4.   How Vietnam is Winning Global TradeAt TDM, we’ve been talking about Vietnam’s promise for a decade, so we’re not surprised to see its strong export numbers. The remarkable thing about Vietnam isn’t that it has become an export machine, it’s that its manufacturing capacity has increased across so broad a base. 5.   Russia’s Shrinking Import DemandRussia still isn’t publishing trade statistics, but thanks to the breadth of TDM’s database, we can look at which countries are shipping to Russia. Those exports to Russia are mostly shrinking, an indication of the battering Russia has been taking from the war. The IMF and other institutions predict Russian GDP growth of only around 1% in 2026. 
     6.   U.S. Imports from MexicoThe biggest beneficiary of the U.S.’s trade war with China has been Mexico. Although the two countries, and Canada, are now renegotiating the USMCA, businesses have had confidence they can manufacture in Mexico and ship north. Mexico has been suppressing data, but U.S. import statistics paint a picture.
    7.   Indian ExportsNow with the world’s biggest population, India has now overtaken Japan as the world’s fourth biggest economy, behind the U.S., China and Germany. Its top market: the U.S., followed by UAE and the Netherlands. 
    8.   Trade Case Study: EgyptTrade coverage focuses on the big countries, but we’ve been studying smaller players, and one interesting case study is Egypt. It’s been boosting apparel exports, a sign of a country’s increasing prosperity and competitiveness on export markets. In 2025, Egypt clocked the biggest increase in apparel exports, shipping out $2.6 billion in the first nine months of 2025, 30.7% more than the year before. The second highest increase was registered by Cambodia at 16.9%, and no other country improved by double digits. 9.   What States’ Ports and Economies Are Thriving MostAmerica is a huge continental economy with dozens of distinct economic regions and sea- and airports. We sorted every state by increase year-on-year in exports from the place it’s leaving the U.S., over the first nine months of 2025. Texas and California are still the biggest exporters overall, but New York leads the race in year-on, because of its trade in physical gold. Arizona ranks second because of its electronics trade with Mexico. Third is Indiana, thanks to its exports of hormones to Italy. 10.   U.S. Wine ExportsA retaliatory tariff and a “Buy Canadian” movement have dented U.S. wine exports to its northern neighbor. Instead, U.S. producers are finding replacement markets in Germany, South Africa and Japan. 
    5 News Stories To Understand This Moment in Global Trade 📰
      
    WSJ: A Shrimper, a Carmaker, a Lawyer: How the World Tackled Trump’s Trade War: A fascinating mini-survey of how businesses around the world are being impacted by tariffs.Euronews: In 2025, global trade cracked as Europe hurt by US tariffs and new China shock: An important perspective, from Europe, on how trade flows have been rerouted toward the Old World. Global Trade: U.S. Tariffs to Cost Container Carriers $.2 billion by 2026, Alphaliner Warns: The U.S. isn’t just imposing tariffs on goods, it’s putting duties on ships. AP: Trump launched global tariff wars in 2025. Here’s a recap of his trade actions this year: A useful recap of U.S. trade duties in 2025. BBC: Peru’s ‘fast and furious’ blueberry boom: An optimistic story about global trade, chronicling how Peru has become the world’s biggest blueberry exporter.
    What We’re Reading 📚
      With tariffs still beating down optimism over global trade, it’s easy to get dragged down by the political story of modern commerce. What’s lost is the triumph of human ingenuity represented by the global logistics industry figuring out how to move goods from any place in the world to any other place. My former Wall Street Journalcolleague Christopher Mims tells that story in his 2021 book Arriving Today: From Factory to Front Door—Why Everything Has Changed About How and What We Buy. In an illustrative anecdote, Mims tells the story of a USB charger. After leaving a factory in Vietnam, Mims recounts, the charger “has traveled more than 14,000 miles, across 12 times zones, by truck, barge, crane, container ship, crane, and truck again, all before it trundled down a few hundred yards of conveyor, flitted about on the back of a robot, and was ferried again on, all told, miles more conveyor and at least two more trucks, before being hand-carried to someone’s front door.”

  • Chinese Exports Down 1.1% in October

    Chinese Exports Down 1.1% in October

    The Chinese export juggernaut finally started to show the impact of protectionism and weaker Western consumer markets in October. 

    A week after Presidents Trump and Xi settled a new trade deal that cut tariffs and put off their trade war for a year, China reported a 1.1% year-on-year drop in exports to $305.3 billion. 

    To be sure, this is only one month. China has shown resiliency thus far in 2025, finding other markets as Washington puts up obstacles to its exports. Shipments to the U.S. have declining since the spring. In October, exports to the U.S. fell 25.1% year-on-year to $34.9 billion. But sale to the European Union, especially Germany and France, had been holding steady. In October, surprisingly, they rose only 1%, to $43.9 billion.

    Analysts had predicted a 3% overall increase in exports, meaning that China missed its target by 4 percentage points. 

    Much of the recent analysis has focused on protectionist trade policies driven by populist politics. Although they have caused headaches for businesses by creating a climate of uncertainty, real tariffs have been lower than headline duties. Instead, a big part of the leveling off of Chinese exports has been caused by a change in its export composition, and in consumer demand in the U.S. and Europe. That’s why there’s been dramatic drops in shipments of consumer goods where China used to dominate. In October, for example, toy exports fell a whopping 31% to $2.5 billion. Shoe sales dropped 20.9% to $2.7 billion. Suitcase exports declined 25.7% to $2.1 billion. It’s not just the low-tech stuff. The number of mobile phones shipped dropped 14.2% to 70.6 million. Exports of high-tech products increased a modest 1.8% to $83 billion. 

    Meanwhile, China is dominating new markets, especially in the automotive sector. Car shipments boomed again in October, rising 34.1% year-on-year to $14.3 billion. In Europe and the U.S., China still has to contend with strong domestic manufacturers. These exports tend to go elsewhere. China’s top 10 car markets so far this year: UAE, Russia, Belgium, UK, Mexico, Australia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Kazakhstan.  

    The bright spots: In October, shipments to ASEAN nations rose 11.1% to $53.3 billon; exports to Vietnam increased 22.4% to $16.6 billion. Exports to Africa rose 9.4% to $17.7 billion. Exports to Latin America increased 2.2% to $24.1 billion. Exports to Russia, however, plummeted 22.5% to $8.5 billion. 

    The slowdown in trade poses a challenge for Chinese policymakers. “As exports rapidly lose steam and retail sales show signs of deterioration, we see increasing pressure on Beijing to step up policy support to stabilize growth” until the end of 2025, Nomura wrote in a note.

    Domestically, there are certainly questions. 

    In October, imports rose only 1% to $215.3 billion, raising questions about domestic demand. Imports of agricultural products rose 7.1% to $17.2 billion. Purchases of high-tech products rose by 3.1% to $69.9 billion. 

    Imports from the U.S. declined 22.5% to $10.2 billion. Imports from the EU rose 4% to $22.1 billion. Imports from ASEAN countries fell 4.6% to $32.5 billion. Purchases from Africa increased 5.4% to $9.7 billion. Imports from Latin America, goosed by soybean sales, were up 15.1% to $21.5 billion. Imports from Russia rose 0.9% to $11 billion. 

    Beijing has reported GDP growth of 5.2% over the first nine months of the year, and seems on track to hit the government’s 5% goal for the year. 

    One good sign is the country’s appetite for industrial commodities: Imports of copper and iron ore rose year-on-year in October, as did purchases of natural gas and crude oil. Imports of coal continued to fall sharply.

  • Is Global Trade Too Strong for Tariffs?

    Is Global Trade Too Strong for Tariffs?

    Global Trade Can Take a Punch

    This month, markets have swerved to adjust to the threat of new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. Yet, global trade keeps finding a way. In September, although shipments to the U.S. plummeted, China’s monthly exports increased 8.3% year-on-year to $328.6 billion.

    One way of looking at the stubborn performance of China’s export machine, and the global trading system, is that the swift emergence of an infrastructure that can function without the U.S.. “This resilience shows that China has strengthened trade with the rest of the world amid US protectionism,” ING Bank economist Lynn Song wrote in a published note Monday.

    To be sure, both China and the U.S have talked up the possibility of more radical constrictions on trade that would put more of a dent in the global economy, but so far this year, trade has been surprisingly robust. 

    The Supereconomies

    At the World Trade Organization’s forum last month, there was talk of how a multilateral trade deal might be conceived even if Washington didn’t join the party. But, despite new duties, even the U.S. is having a decent year trading with the rest of the world. In the first seven months of 2025, U.S. imports increased 11% to $2.1 trillion, while exports rose 4.6% to $1.2 trillion. 

    What’s going on here? 

    The simplest explanation is that the world’s two supereconomies are both so populated and wealthy that businesses can find opportunities to buy and sell despite governments’ new tax burdens. 

    To boot, China and the U.S. are less and less intertwined with each other, meaning that their trade dispute has less of an impact on the global economy that it would have a decade ago. 

    Ten years ago, in the first nine months of 2015, the U.S. accounted for 18%, or $303.8 billion, of China’s $1.7 trillion of exports. This year, in the first nine months of 2025, the U.S. was worth only 11.4%, or $317.2 billion, of China’s $2.8 trillion of exports. In September, exports to the U.S. dropped 27% to $34.3 billion. 

    The World is a Big Place

    To replace the U.S. markets, Chinese-based manufacturers, many of which are connected to U.S. and European corporations, have been finding substitute markets. In September, Exports to ASEAN countries increased 15.8% to $53.7 billion. Particularly, exports to Vietnam rose 24.6% to $16.7 billion. Exports to the European Union rose 14.2% to $48 billion. 

    One place that is becoming less valuable to Chinese exports: Russia, where exports dropped 21% to $8.9 billion.

    China’s economy has faced its own set of challenges, including a credit crisis and housing bubble. But in September, total imports increased 7.4% to $238.1 billion, despite imports from the U.S. falling 16.1% to $11.5 billion. Imports from the EU rose 9.5% to $25.2 billion, compensating for imports from ASEAN nations slipping 0.8% to $36.5 billion. 

    The Strength of Heavy Industry 

    The real reason for the boost in imports is an increase in purchases of industrial commodities. Imports of copper increased 6.4% to 2.6 million tons. Iron ore purchases rose 11.9% to 116.3 million tons. These came from commodity-rich nations in Africa and Latin America. Imports from Africa increased 22.5% to $10.6 billion, and purchases from Latin America rose 18.6% to $23.3 billion. China has been reducing its intake of fossil fuels. Coal imports in September fell 3.3% to 46 million tons. 

    All that metal is getting turned into a car industry that have overtaken the U.S. In September, automobile exports increased 10.8% to $12.8 billion. 

    In many cases, companies are overcoming protectionism for a simple reason: They can afford it. For example, in September, China’s exports of rare earths declined 4.3% by quantity, to 4,000.3 tons. By prices, they roughly doubled in value to $60 million. It’s often said that rare earths are essential for modern electronics, and that’s true, but the quantities required are miniscule, and even when supply gets tightened and prices spike, affordable.  

    There are real signs that tariffs and faltering consumer demand are denting exports of manufacturing staples. Exports of toys, for example, fell 28% to $2.9 billion. Sales of shoes fell 13.2% to $2.9 billion. Exports of household appliances dropped 9.6% to $7.7 billion. 

    One good sign for global trade: exports of ships increased 24% to 543 from 438. By value, sales rose 43% to $6.6 billion. Ships are becoming more valuable because firms need them.

  • Global Coal Trade is Finally Faltering

    Global Coal Trade is Finally Faltering

    China Cuts Coal Imports

    For years, as governments around the world embraced clean energy technology, coal trade held steady because China was still buying. As the rest of the world turned away from coal, China boosted imports to power its booming electrification, and a vibrant new industry of electric vehicles and batteries. In 2024, it imported 352.2 million metric tons of coal, up 79% from 197 million in 2019. 

    This year, China is finally giving up the rock. In July, its purchases of coal dropped 22.9% year-on-year by volume to 35.6 million tons, while boosting imports of other energy sources. Imports of natural gas rose 82.4% to 10.6 million tons, and imports of crude petroleum oil increased 11.5% to 47.2 million tons.

    China diminished imports from its top sources: Russia, Australia, Mongolia and Indonesia. The only country it increased coal imports from was Canada, boosting imports 13.3% to 5.4 million tons. 

    So what is going on? China has been producing more coal domestically and also developing more alternative energy sources such as wind and solar. It’s also transforming its economy to become less dependent on global trade, by ramping up production in assets like coal, where it has abundant resources. Exports of fertilizers rose 134.5% to $2.1 billion, and exports of agricultural products increased 1.6% to $8.4 billion.

    Adjusting to U.S. Tariffs

    The switch is just one of the ways China has been adjusting to duties from its biggest export market. How the world adapts to a newly protectionist U.S. is one of the most important economic stories of the decade. On Thursday, August, 7, Washington slapped duties from 10% to 41% on hundreds of billions worth of imports from dozens of countries. 

    Also on Thursday, China said its overall goods exports increased 7.2% in July to $321.8 billion, surpassing the expectations of analysts who’d predicted growth of around 6%. Exports to the U.S., however, fell 21.6% to $35.8 billion, while imports from the U.S. shrank 18.6% to $12.1 billion. 

    Current U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports vary, but are generally around 45%. The U.S. has also eliminated the de minimis exemption, which allowed companies to ship goods worth under $800 into the U.S. tariff free. 

    Negotiators from Washington and Beijing are currently negotiating a new agreement governing tariffs between the two countries. The two sides have set an August 12 deadline, after which they’ve threatened to impose duties of over 100%, which would cripple trade between the world’s dominant trading economies.

    Destination Europe

    One surprising development has been how much China has managed to redirect its exports into the European Union. Officials from Brussels visited Beijing last month. Shipments into the EU increased 9.3% in July to $50 billion, even as imports from the EU declined 1.4% to 24.5 billion. 

    Less surprisingly, exports to ASEAN nations rose 16.8% to $54.6 billion, led by shipments to Vietnam increased 28.1% to $17.1 billion. Imports from ASEAN nations fell 5.4% to $31.4 billion. Exports to Russia continued their decline, falling 9% to $9.1 billion. 

    Supply Chains or Domestic Demand?

    China’s total imports rose 4.1% in July to $223.5 billion. The increase in imports was driven by increases in commodity shipments from Africa, up 20.3% to $10.6 billion, Latin America, up 12% to $22.1 billion, and India, 26.4% to $1.7 billion. 

    Just as the new American dream appears to be a self-contained continental market, so it goes for China. It’s now a country that makes everything. All it needs is raw materials. Imports of agricultural products rose 5.4% to $18.7 billion. One essential question is how much the trade is focused on supplying the domestic market, and how much is part of global manufacturing supply chains. 

    Phone and Cars

    Shipments of high-tech products rose 4.3% to $78.1 billion. Exports of mobile phones, however, fell 21.8% to $7.5 billion, signaling that China could losing one of the mainstays of its export economy. In the first half of 2025, the U.S. cut smartphone imports from China 27.6% to $11.2 billion from tripling them from India to $11.6 billion. That might change as President Trump moves to slap duties on India. Imports of high-tech products rose 7.9% to $71.9 billion, and exports of chips and integrated circuits increased 29.4% to $17.9 billion. 

    When it comes to cars, China has already become a country that makes way more than it takes. Exports of motor vehicles rose 18.5% to $11.8 billion. Imports of motor vehicles dropped 42.1% to $2.5 billion. 

    Toy sales fell 3.2% to $3.5 billion. 

  • Steel Trade Trends in 2025

    Steel Trade Trends in 2025

    Shake-up in Global Steel

    The world of steel trade is in for a shake-up. New climate rules in Europe, the prospect of ramped-up U.S. tariffs on steel and an excess of Chinese steel imports mean companies around the world must calibrate their trade strategies in 2024.  

    With the U.S. locked in protectionism and the EU implementing climate rules, the action is shifting to countries like Turkey and Asian markets such as the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea.

    The Turkish Solution

    The world’s top importers of iron and steel (HS72), including scrap, during the first eight months of 2024 were Turkey (26.2 million tons), Italy (16.1 million tons), the U.S. (16 million tons), China (15.1 million tons), India (14 million tons), South Korea (11.9 million tons), Spain (9.7 million tons), Thailand (9.6 million tons), and Indonesia (8.7 million tons).

    Turkey’s top categories of iron and steel imports were scrap (13.5 million tons), semifinished products (4.2 million tons), flat-rolled (2.9 million tons), flat-rolled alloy (1 million tons), and pig iron (879,098 tons). Turkey’s best suppliers of iron and steel are the U.S. (3.1 million tons), Russia (3 million tons), China (2.3 million tons).

    Trump is Back

    The biggest news of 2024 is the re-election of so-called Tariff Man Donald Trump to the White House. Trump has promised to install 60% tariffs on all goods imported from China and 10% tariffs on goods imported from all over the world. Trump already imposed steel and aluminum duties during his first term that the Biden administration lifted in 2021. The moves increased costs for industries such as cars, machinery, appliances and infrastructure products made with imported steel.

    The U.S. imported $24.1 billion worth of iron and steel in the first nine months of 2024. Its top partners were Canada ($5.9 billion), Brazil ($3.7 billion), Mexico ($2.4 billion), South Korea ($1.4 billion) and Germany ($1.1 billion). By quantity, the U.S.’s top categories of iron and steel imports are flat-rolled clad, plated or coated (3.6 million tons), semifinished (2.8 million tons), and flat-rolled not clad, plated or coated (2.1 million tons).

    Europe’s Calling Card

    Don’t count out Europe.  In the first eight months of 2024, European iron and steel importers amounted to 34.7 million tons, up 3.3% from 2023. The top foreign markets were Russia (4 MT), India (3.5 MT), Turkey (3.3 MT), Ukraine (2.4 MT), and China (2.3 MT). That’s down from 52.3 million tons in 2017, the first year of the Trump presidency. Europe’s top iron and steel export markets were Turkey (8.8 million tons), the UK (2.5 million tons), the U.S. (2.4 million tons), Egypt (1.6. million tons), and Switzerland (1.5 million tons).

    China’s Oversupply

    China, of course, still reigns supreme atop the global steel industry. The country has been hit by a property bubble forcing excess steel capacity onto global markets. In November, the country announced a stimulus package over a trillion dollars, which should absorb more production.

    During the first eight months of 2024, the top exporters of iron and steel (HS72) in 2024 were China (64 million tons in the first eight months), the EU (34.7 million tons), Japan (24.4 million tons), South Korea (17.2 million tons), Indonesia (13.8 million tons), Brazil (9.9 million tons), Turkey (9.1 million tons), Iran (8.3 million tons), and India (8 million tons).

    The Flat-Rolled Market

    China is the world’s top exporters of flat-rolled iron or nonalloy steel products (HS7208), shipping out 21.9 million tons in the first eight months of 2024, ahead of Japan (9.9 million tons), South Korea (5.6 million tons), Turkey (2.1 million tons), India (2 million tons), and the U.S. (1.1 million tons).

    The biggest importers were South Korea (3.6 million tons), Turkey (2.9 million tons), India (2.7 million tons), the U.S. (1.9 million tons), Malaysia (1.7 million tons), Thailand (1.6 million tons), Mexico (1.5 million tons), Indonesia (1.4 million tons), and Japan (1.3 million tons). By comparison, in 2015, the U.S. imported 4.3 million tons of flat-rolled over the same time period.

    John W. Miller

  • What’s Behind the High-Tech Trade Slump?

    What’s Behind the High-Tech Trade Slump?

    It’s not been an easy time for international trade, as a recent report co-authored by Trade Data Monitor and the World Intellectual Property Organization found.

    High-tech exports are set to decline by 4 percent in 2023, according to the TDM/WIPO analysis. Global and high-tech trade have soared and sunk like rollercoasters since 2019. After the strong post-pandemic recovery in 2021 followed by a slowdown in 2022, total merchandise trade is expected to grow at a meagre 0.8 percent in 2023.

    Changing global value chains and geopolitical tensions are driving some of the trade slowdown, as well as inflation which is increasing the costs of traded high-tech goods. The development of new sectors, particularly in the manufacturing of renewable energies, batteries and electric vehicles, helps mitigate the high-tech growth slump, however.

    The key player, as a consumer and manufacturer, is still China, and Chinese high-tech exports fell 11.4% to USD 728.2 billion in the first 10 months of 2023. The country’s smartphone exports fell by close to 7% to USD 106.8 billion, and sales of its data processing machines dropped 24% to USD 82.8 billion (see Figure 3). Shipments to many of China’s traditional trading partners dropped. Exports to the U.S. fell by 21% to USD 102.7 billion; to the Republic of Korea by 13.4% to USD 33.9 billion, and to the Netherlands by close to 20% to USD 33 billion. Still, despite the decline, China is the leading high-tech exporter by far.

    Other Asian economies also experienced high-tech export declines. Exports of the Republic of Korea, for example, declined by 28% to USD 110 billion. Japanese exports fell 10% to USD 76.9 billion. Viet Nam’s export fared better, falling 1.7% to USD 115 billion in the first nine months of 2023.

    By contrast, U.S. high-tech exports rose 4.4% to USD 282.5 billion. Shipments to Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium all rose by double digits. U.S. exports of smartphones, routers, board and panels, parts for gas turbines, and computers all increased.

    Germany’s high-tech exports rose 6.6% to USD 217.4 billion over the first ten months of 2023. Exports of big airplanes rose 26.8% to USD 19.7 billion, shipments of immunological products rose 9.4% to USD 24.5 billion, and sales of processors and controllers, electric integrated circuits jumped 23.5% to USD 9.6 billion. And France’s high-tech exports increased 2.7% to USD 97.7 billion, thanks to increases in shipments of airplanes (up 16.9% to USD 19.7 billion), electronic integrated circuits (up 16.9% to USD 5.6 billion), and spacecraft, including satellites (up 438.4% to USD 2.1 billion). 

    Other fast-growing high-tech exporters in Europe include Austria, Hungary and Poland. Austria’s high-tech exports rose 16.9% to USD 22.1. billion in the first 10 months of 2023, thanks to hikes in shipments of anti-serum, up 26.7% to USD 3.8 billion, electrical panels, up 17.3% to USD 983 million, and transistors, up 40.8% to USD 650.1 million.

    Hungary’s high-tech exports increased 10.8% to USD 20 billion, on the back of sales of processors, up 11.2% to USD 2.3 billion, routers, up 27% to USD 1.7 billion, and smartphones, up 99.7% to USD 1.1 billion. Polish high-tech shipments increased 7% to USD 29.5 billion thanks to sales of data processing machines, airplane parts and hearing aids.

    John W. Miller

  • China Hikes Iron Ore, Copper Imports Amid Car Building Boom

    China Hikes Iron Ore, Copper Imports Amid Car Building Boom

    In the somewhat gloomy December and annual China trade statistics released in the second week of January was buried a piece of data that hearkened back to the boom years of Chinese commodity consumption: China is buying a lot more iron ore and copper.

    In December, China boosted iron ore imports 11.1% year-on-year to 100.9 million tons, worth $12.4 billion. Copper imports rose 18.2% to 2.5 million tons, worth $5.3 billon. These confirmed ongoing trends. For all of 2023, iron ore imports rose 6.6% to 1.2 billion tons, worth $134 billion. For the year, copper purchases rose 9.1% to 27.5 million tons, worth $60.1 billion.

    But the reasons for the big increase is no longer buildings and highways of a society punching its way into to global prosperity as it was in the early 2000s. Instead, these rising industrial commodity purchases are underpinned by China’s booming automobile and shipbuilding industries. Car exports rose 52% year-on-year in December to $8.9 billion. China, in fact, is set to pass Japan this year as the world’s number one auto exporter. Exports of ships, a related industry, increased 28.6% to $3.2 billion. 

    The headline numbers were less bullish, but perhaps not as bad as many feared, for China and the global economy. Total exports rose only 2.3% in December to $303.6 billion from $296.9 billion a year ago. For the year, exports dropped 4.6% to $3.4 trillion, a decline Chinese officials attributed to a faltering global economy. “The global economic recovery has been weak in the past year,” Lyu Daliang, a government spokesperson. “Sluggish external demand has hit China’s exports. Exports to the U.S. dropped 4.8% to $42.2 billion. Exports to ASEAN countries improved 0.4% to $50.2 billion. Exports to the EU dropped 1% to $42.8 billon. 

    Among the bright spots in partner countries, Chinese exports to India increased 8.5% to $10.5 billion, shipment to Russia increased 22.5% to $10.7 billion, and sales to Africa increased 9.5% to $15.3 billion. 

    There was a recovery in high-tech trade, driven by more demand for semiconductors and digital equipment. The work from home economy driven by the Covid-19 pandemic has subsided some, but it’s caused enough structural changes to undergird a new tech economy. For December, shipments of high-tech products increased 0.5% year-on-year to $77 billion, suggesting that the sector might be turning a corner after a dismal year. For all of 2023, high-tech exports dropped 10.8% year-on-year to $842.5 billion.

    Industrial commodities dented exports more than high-tech trade. China shrank exports of petroleum products 39.8% to 4.7 million tons. By value, they decreased 42.7% to $3.7 billion. Exports of fertilizers fell 26.8% to $707 million. Exports of steel products rose 45.4% to 7.7 million tons but they were sold at a discount. By value, they declined 8.7% to $6.4 million.

    The increases in copper and iron ore purchases were among outliers in Chinese imports. Total imports increased 0.2% to $228.3 billion from $227.9 billion. For the year, imports declined 5.5% to $2.6 trillion. China increased imports from the EU 0.4% to $24 billon. Imports from the U.S. dropped 4.3% to $14.9 billon. Imports from ASEAN countries fell 2.4% to $35.7 billion. There were a few bright spots among trading partners. Imports from India rose 24.1% to $1.5 billion. Imports from Russia increased 23.1% to $11.2 billion. Imports from Africa rose 4.3% to $8.8 billion. 

    And China’s appetite for coal, driven largely by demand from new power plants generating power for cities and a new generation of electric vehicles, showed no signs of abating. China increased coal imports 53% to 47.3 million tons, and by value 22.8% to $5.2 billion. For the year, China hiked purchases of the black rock 61.8% to 474.4 million tons, worth $53 billions.

    John W. Miller

  • Trade Data Monitor’s Top 10 Trade Trends Going Into 2024

    Trade Data Monitor’s Top 10 Trade Trends Going Into 2024

    It’s not an easy time for global trade–the roughly $25 trillion piece of the $105 trillion world economy. Protectionism is roaring in the U.S. and Europe, causing geopolitical tension with China. Inflation across most of the world has shrunk consumers’ wallets and imports, while deflation in China is also scaring businesses. Asian supply chains are slumping. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the late 2023 conflict in Israel-Palestine has created more business uncertainty, danger for container ships transiting the Red Sea, and geopolitical tension. And then there’s the structural shifts in supply chains that have raised fears of deglobalization. That is probably less of a risk that people think. “We do see some signs in the data of trade fragmentation linked to geopolitical tensions,” said WTO chief economist Ralph Ossa. “Fortunately, broader deglobalization is not here yet. The data suggest that goods continue to be produced through complex supply chains, but that the extent of these chains may have plateaued, at least in the short run.” In other words, this is a time of change, more reason than ever to pay close attention to trends.

    Here are Trade Data Monitor’s top 10 ongoing trade trends at the start of 2024:

    1. Trade Crisis: Protectionism, price swings (inflation in the U.S. and Europe, deflation in China) and geopolitical tensions have created an uncertain environment for trade. The World Trade Organization now forecasts global trade to grow by only 0.8% in 2023, less than half the 1.7% increase predicted in April. For 2024, the WTO expects an increase of 3.3%, a modest recovery, but below the trend in the early 2000s.
    2. The COVID Effect: The COVID-19 pandemic depressed trade in 2020-2023, but now it’s triggered a booming in shipments of vaccines and medical test kits. The U.S. increased imports of medical test kits 46% to $44.7 billion in the 10 months of 2023. The top exporters of medical test kids are Switzerland (up 12% to $39.3 billion), Germany (up 9% to $24.5 billion), and the U.S. (up 11% to $16 billion), followed by Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands.
    3. China Problem: It used to be that you could count on death, taxes and an uptick in Chinese exports. That’s no longer the case. Manufacturers have diversified their supply chains, consumers aren’t buying enough, and tariffs and export restrictions are rising. The upshot: In the first 11 months of 2023, Chinese exports declined 4% to $3.1 trillion. Exports to the U.S. over that time fell 13% to $463.7 billion.
    4. Asia’s Slump: China wasn’t the only Asian country to suffer declining exports. Singapore’s shipments fell 9.3% to $395.5 billion, South Korean exports declined 10% to $519.3 billion, and Japan’s sales fell 4.6% to $591.4 billion, and Taiwan’s exports fell 12.6% to $354.2 billion in the first 10 months of 2023.
    5. U.S. and European Rebound: The situation has been better for the U.S. and Europe. Supply chains are adjusting away from China, benefitting U.S. and European trade. Germany’s exports rose 1.5% to $1.4 trillion and French shipments increased 5.3% to $527.9 billion in the first 10 months of 2023. U.S exports declined 2.4% overall to $1.7 trillion, but that was mainly because of a decline in fuel prices. Shipments of electronics, machinery, cars, airplanes and pharmaceuticals all increased.
    6. Don’t Take Your Eye Off Electric Cars: Electric cars might be the most significant trade product in the world right now. Germany (up 86% in the first nine months of 2023 to $30.4 billion), China (up 112% to $25.1 billion), Belgium (up 78.1% to $13.3 billion), South Korea (up 89% to $10.4 billion) and the U.S. (up 41.4% to $5.8 billion) are leading the charge.
    7. The Energy Revolution: Investments in green energy, driven by governments and consumer demand, are propelling new trade flows. For example, U.S. imports of solar panels and related parts increased 70.1% to $19.5 billion in the first 10 months of 2023.
    8. Russia-China Trade: The huge boom in Russia-China trade, triggered by the war in Ukraine and subsequent U.S. and European sanctions, is still going on but it is finally showing signs of tapering off. Russia is now China’s sixth biggest source of imports and sixth biggest export destination. But after triple-digit increases in 2022, monthly increases are finally dropping. For example, in November 2023, Chinese exports to Russia increased 35% to $10.3 billion.  
    9. Regional Trade Boom: We’re seeing a healthy boom in regional trade networks. One example is the Middle East. For example, Iranian exports to Iraq (+73%) and Turkey (+32%) increased but the country’s shipments to China fell 16.3% in the first nine month of 2023. And the increases weren’t only driven by higher oil prices. Iran increased its oil exports to Iraq 332.8% to 88.4 million barrels in the first nine months of 2023.
    10. China is Buying All the Coal: While much of the rest of the world is trying to wean itself from fossil fuels, especially the dirtiest one, coal, China is ramping up imports. Ironically, it needs coal partly to power a new generation of power plants pumping out electricity for electric car batteries. In the first 10 months of 2023, it hiked purchases of the black rock 38% to $33.5 billion by value, and 96.6% by quantity to 250.3 million tons.

    John W. Miller is Trade Data Monitor’s Chief Economic Analyst, in charge of writing TDM Insights, a newsletter analyzing key issues through trade statistics. John is an award-winning journalist who’s reported from 45 countries for the Wall Street Journal, Time Magazine, and NPR.

  • TDM Data Used to Scrutinize Impact of Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

    TDM Data Used to Scrutinize Impact of Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

    Trade scholars in a recent paper used Trade Data Monitor data on steel and aluminum trade to gauge the impact of 2018-2019 protectionist measures on U.S. and European Union imports.

    The paper by Simon Evenett and Fernando Martin, published by the Center for European Policy Research, found that because the U.S. and European Union import relatively small quantities of Chinese metals, “limited EU and US leverage is unlikely to change investment plans of Chinese steel producers.” If the U.S. and EU raise tariffs, Chinese exports will be redirected to “third markets – and this may not be without cost to Chinese firms that may have to accept lower export prices.”

    For example, China accounted for only 11% of U.S. aluminum imports and 2% of steel imports in 2022, according to TDM data.

    The U.S. and EU have been negotiating a new agreement on steel and aluminum trade known as the Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum, to “address carbon emissions on steel and aluminum” while restoring “market-oriented conditions.”

    The paper found that “while EU and US purchases of steel and aluminum account for half of world imports, so diversified are China’s exports that transatlantic leverage over Chinese producers is likely to disappoint. Further trade deflection, not accelerated Chinese decarbonisation, is the likely outcome of any climate-related sectoral trade deal.”

  • China Boosts Imports of Raw Materials by Double Digits

    China Boosts Imports of Raw Materials by Double Digits

    China in October dramatically increased imports of fossil fuels, industrial metals and agricultural commodities, a run on raw materials that if sustained will have a major impact on prices and supply chains.

    China continued to increase its ferocious energy consumption, hiking imports of natural gas 120.1% year-on-year to 8.8 million tons, coal 23.3% to 36 million tons, and crude oil 13.6% to 49 million tons.

    It also increased imports of industrial metals used in construction, automotive, high-tech, and defense, buying 23.8% more copper, up to 2.3 million tons, and 4.9% more iron ore, up to 99.4 million tons. One possible reason for the increased demand for commodities is a rebound in the real estate market. The Chinese central bank has simplified lending rules, given first-time home buyers lower interest rates, and will issue hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of bonds for infrastructure. 

    In agriculture markets, China reduced shipments of meat, but increased imports of fruits and nuts 26.4%, grain 38.4%, soybeans 25.2% and vegetable oil 27.2%.

    Buying from Africa and Latin America

    Given this hungry appetite for commodities, it’s no wonder that China is increasing trade with resource-rich countries of Africa and Latin America. Imports into China from Latin America jumped 28% to $20.7 billion. Imports from Brazil increased 40.4% to $10.6 billion. Imports from Africa jumped 22.9% to $10 billion, and imports from South Africa rose 23% to $2.9 billion.

    Overall, Chinese imports rose 3% year-on-year to $218.3 billion, while exports declined 6.6% to $274.8 billion. The resulting trade surplus, $56.5 billion, dropped over 30% from $77.7 billion in September.

    Volatility of Global Trade

    Global trade is in the most volatile period it’s been in since the end of the Cold War. There are wars ongoing in Ukraine and the Middle East, a green energy and electric car revolution, rising protectionism and tension between China and its top trading partners, the U.S. and Europe.

    It remains to be seen whether China will continue to aggressively expand its trade with the Global South. By comparison, imports from the EU rose 6.8% to $22.7 billon. Imports from the U.S. fell 2.3% to $12.3 billion. Imports from ASEAN countries rose 10% to $36.7 billion. Imports from Japan fell 7.8% to $13.5 billion. Even the China-Russia trade boom seems to be finally leveling off: Purchases from Russia rose only 7.2% to $11.1 billion.

    The Problem of China’s Export Slump

    The rising imports contrasted with a continued drop in exports. The slump is cutting across almost all commodities. Exports of high-tech products fell 8% to $74.8 billion. Exports of luggage, footwear, toys and textiles all dropped.

    Underlying those declines is the persistence of weakening economies in rich countries. Exports to the EU fell 12.2% to $38.6 billion. Exports to the U.S. dropped 7.6% to $43.2 billion. Exports to ASEAN countries decreased 12.6% to $41.5 billion. Exports to Japan fell 12.8% to $12.9 billion. 

    There were exceptions in some markets, including, as has always been the case recently, in automotive. But it wasn’t just cars. Exports of ships rose 34.3% to $2.8 billion, and sales of mobile phones rebounded, rising 21.8% to $18.7 billion.

    Solutions to Trade Wars

    One of the causes of lower exports is that foreign direct investment into China by foreign companies has been dropping. Beijing has said that FDI declined almost $12 billion year-on-year in the quarter between July and September.

    Chinese prime minister Li Qiang promised this weekend to make China a more attractive place for foreign companies to invest, an “continue to create a market-oriented, legal, and international business environment.”

    And China is also working to reduce protectionism. Its trade officials have been in talks with Australia to resume trading after a breakdown in trade ties over a series of disputes, amplified by Australia’s inquiries into the origins of Covid-19.