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John Miller

143 articles published

Don’t Overlook Germany’s Trade Economy

UncategorizedSeptember 19, 20240Comments

The conversation about global trade often leaves out the world’s fourth biggest economy and third top exporter and importer, but Germany is poised to play an even bigger role this decade as China and the U.S. remain locked in a trade war. In August, Chinese exports to Germany jumped a whopping 21.5% to $10.1 billion.…

It’s a Good Summer for Trade But China Ag Imports Fell In July

UncategorizedAugust 12, 20240Comments

During a summer that’s been a boon for free trade despite a looming escalation in trade wars, and the possibility of a second Trump administration, China’s agricultural imports dropped 4.9% year-on-year in July to $17.8 billion. The trend reflects China’s regulatory practices, strategic protectionism, and shifting demographics. China has blocked some U.S. beef imports because of…

How Tariffs Are Reshuffling EV Trade

UncategorizedJuly 11, 20240Comments

Age of the EV We’re entering the age of the electric vehicle, and global trade is keeping pace. Around 20% of all cars bought in the world in 2023, a total of almost 14 million, were electric, and there are now 40 million on the road, according to the International Energy Agency. Total trade in…

How Chinese Exports Beat Tariffs

UncategorizedJune 11, 20240Comments

More Tariffs on the Horizon There seems to be no end to the trade pendulum swinging hard toward protectionism in Brussels and Washington-- or to Chinese exports continuing to flood global markets. The Biden administration last month slapped tariffs on imports of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and other high-tech goods from China. (They’ll mostly affect batteries.) The…

Middle East Trade in the Time of War

UncategorizedJune 5, 20240Comments

Middle East: The Big Picture In 2024, the Middle East has been hit by conflict, piracy, and the vagaries of supply chains and the oil market. The specter of protectionism appears threatening, especially between countries in conflict with each other. As the U.S. and the European Union slide into a quasi-permanent protectionist mindset, including tit-for-tat…

Can Chinese Imports Boost the Global Economy?

UncategorizedMay 14, 20240Comments

The Beijing trade engine has been slumping this year amid a tepid global economy, so a surprising jump in Chinese imports in April has raised the prospect of a China-led recovery. Total Chinese imports rose 8.4% year-on-year in April to $220.1 billon, almost double analyst expectations. Total exports increased 1.5% to $292.5 billon. Surprising Global…

China’s EV Export Boom is Driving up Demand for RoRo Ships

UncategorizedApril 15, 20240Comments

China’s electric car export boom has fueled demand in the country for automobile transport ships, driving up prices for foreign buyers. Overall, in March, Chinese ship exports fell 5.9% year-on-year by quantity in March to 399, after steadily rising for most of this decade. By value, they increased 34% to $3.1 billion. So called Roll-on/roll-off,…

China Reboots Trade Thanks to Africa, India, Latin America

UncategorizedMarch 11, 20240Comments

Don’t let anybody tell you that globalization is dying—at least, not yet. Global trade economists obsess over consumer demand and rising protectionism in the U.S. and Europe, but this week’s release of Chinese trade statistics shows that other markets might soon be catching up in relevance. The Promise of Other Markets China’s exports to Latin…

Vietnam’s Secret Weapon: Agriculture

UncategorizedMarch 1, 20240Comments

In a tricky global economy, Vietnamese exports shrank in 2023, but the rising economic power managed to be one of the only countries to increase merchandise exports to China, thanks to a surprising surge in exports of fruits and vegetables, as well as rice, demonstrating the importance of export diversification. The Difficulties of 2023 The country of…

Ukraine: Two Years of Wheat Exports In Review

UncategorizedFebruary 29, 20240Comments

As we enter the third year after the invasion of Ukraine, the landscape of Ukrainian trade, and, specifically, exports of wheat, have drastically evolved. As the world's 4th-largest exporter of wheat and meslin in 2023, Ukraine has remained a relatively stable producer of wheat over the past decade and has remained especially resilient over the…

What’s Behind the High-Tech Trade Slump?

UncategorizedFebruary 16, 20240Comments

It’s not been an easy time for international trade, as a recent report co-authored by Trade Data Monitor and the World Intellectual Property Organization found. High-tech exports are set to decline by 4 percent in 2023, according to the TDM/WIPO analysis. Global and high-tech trade have soared and sunk like rollercoasters since 2019. After…

China Hikes Iron Ore, Copper Imports Amid Car Building Boom

UncategorizedJanuary 23, 20240Comments

In the somewhat gloomy December and annual China trade statistics released in the second week of January was buried a piece of data that hearkened back to the boom years of Chinese commodity consumption: China is buying a lot more iron ore and copper. In December, China boosted iron ore imports 11.1% year-on-year to 100.9…

The Future of EU-China Trade

UncategorizedDecember 21, 20230Comments

As European Union leaders gathered in Beijing Thursday, one of their demands for China was a more equal trading relationship. “China is the EU’s most important trading partner,” said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. “But there are clear imbalances and differences that we must address.” Europe’s weak consumer economy is doing its part…

Trade Data Monitor’s Top 10 Trade Trends Going Into 2024

UncategorizedDecember 20, 20230Comments

It’s not an easy time for global trade--the roughly $25 trillion piece of the $105 trillion world economy. Protectionism is roaring in the U.S. and Europe, causing geopolitical tension with China. Inflation across most of the world has shrunk consumers’ wallets and imports, while deflation in China is also scaring businesses. Asian supply chains are…

TDM Data Used to Scrutinize Impact of Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

UncategorizedNovember 15, 20230Comments

Trade scholars in a recent paper used Trade Data Monitor data on steel and aluminum trade to gauge the impact of 2018-2019 protectionist measures on U.S. and European Union imports. The paper by Simon Evenett and Fernando Martin, published by the Center for European Policy Research, found that because the U.S. and European Union…

China Boosts Imports of Raw Materials by Double Digits

UncategorizedNovember 13, 20230Comments

China in October dramatically increased imports of fossil fuels, industrial metals and agricultural commodities, a run on raw materials that if sustained will have a major impact on prices and supply chains. China continued to increase its ferocious energy consumption, hiking imports of natural gas 120.1% year-on-year to 8.8 million tons, coal 23.3% to 36…

China’s New Place in Global Trade: Number 1 Importer of Food&Ag

UncategorizedJune 12, 20230Comments

As expected, China reported lackluster trade numbers this week, signaling a possible recession in the U.S. and more trouble for the global economy. Chinese exports fell for the first time in three months, dropping 7.5% year-on-year to $283.5 billion. Imports dropped 4.5% to $217.7 billion. The World Bank this week said that the global economy…