Trade in a Time of Geopolitical Adjustment
The focus of the global trade world is, rightly, on President-elect Donald Trump and the U.S. debating and deciding how far they’ll go in enacting new protectionist measures.
But an issue that could upend geopolitics -- with unintended consequences that will affect big issues like war and peace,…
This week’s election of Donald Trump as the U.S.’s 47th president is almost certainly likely to lead to another trade war with China, and further tariffs on American imports. During the campaign, Trump said his favorite word was tariff and floated a universal 10% tariff and specific duties on Chinese imports as high as 60%.…
September Rain
China posted lackluster trade figures in September, highlighting how it might become slowly less reliant on global commerce as other major economies retrench.
Chinese exports increased 2.4% year-on-year, below economists’ expectations of around 6%, to $303.7 billion, while imports increased only 0.3% to $222 billon.
The 2024 Boom
For most of 2024, Chinese…
During a summer that’s been a boon for free trade despite a looming escalation in trade wars, and the possibility of a second Trump administration, China’s agricultural imports dropped 4.9% year-on-year in July to $17.8 billion.
The trend reflects China’s regulatory practices, strategic protectionism, and shifting demographics. China has blocked some U.S. beef imports because of…
Middle East: The Big Picture
In 2024, the Middle East has been hit by conflict, piracy, and the vagaries of supply chains and the oil market. The specter of protectionism appears threatening, especially between countries in conflict with each other. As the U.S. and the European Union slide into a quasi-permanent protectionist mindset, including tit-for-tat…
China’s electric car export boom has fueled demand in the country for automobile transport ships, driving up prices for foreign buyers.
Overall, in March, Chinese ship exports fell 5.9% year-on-year by quantity in March to 399, after steadily rising for most of this decade. By value, they increased 34% to $3.1 billion. So called Roll-on/roll-off,…
Don’t let anybody tell you that globalization is dying—at least, not yet.
Global trade economists obsess over consumer demand and rising protectionism in the U.S. and Europe, but this week’s release of Chinese trade statistics shows that other markets might soon be catching up in relevance.
The Promise of Other Markets
China’s exports to Latin…
In a tricky global economy, Vietnamese exports shrank in 2023, but the rising economic power managed to be one of the only countries to increase merchandise exports to China, thanks to a surprising surge in exports of fruits and vegetables, as well as rice, demonstrating the importance of export diversification.
The Difficulties of 2023
The country of…
As we enter the third year after the invasion of Ukraine, the landscape of Ukrainian trade, and, specifically, exports of wheat, have drastically evolved. As the world's 4th-largest exporter of wheat and meslin in 2023, Ukraine has remained a relatively stable producer of wheat over the past decade and has remained especially resilient over the…
In the somewhat gloomy December and annual China trade statistics released in the second week of January was buried a piece of data that hearkened back to the boom years of Chinese commodity consumption: China is buying a lot more iron ore and copper.
In December, China boosted iron ore imports 11.1% year-on-year to 100.9…
It’s not an easy time for global trade--the roughly $25 trillion piece of the $105 trillion world economy. Protectionism is roaring in the U.S. and Europe, causing geopolitical tension with China. Inflation across most of the world has shrunk consumers’ wallets and imports, while deflation in China is also scaring businesses. Asian supply chains are…