Trade Data Monitor

Industry: Minerals

  • Global Trade is Moving On — Without the U.S.

    Global Trade is Moving On — Without the U.S.

    One way of looking at China’s trade economy in December and for the full 2025 year is its export surge, amplified by a weak currency, deflation at home, and inflation in most of the rest of the world. China pumped up total monthly exports 6.6% to $357.8 billion in December from $335.6 billion over the same period in 2024. 

    Here’s another angle: Washington’s efforts to crimp Beijing’s industrial sector have resulted in diminished U.S.-China trade, but even bigger Chinese surpluses with the rest of the world, and evolutions in global trade that are simply leaving America behind. For the full year, China exported $3.8 trillion worth of goods. Minus imports, that made for a total surplus of $1.19 trillion, the biggest in recorded economic history. 

    Chinese officials themselves have drawn direct links between U.S. policy and its surplus, saying in effect that without tariffs, Beijing would have bought more goods from the rest of the world. “Some countries have politicized economic and trade issues and restricted exports of high-tech products to China for various reasons; otherwise, we would have imported even more,” Wang Jun, a Chinese trade official, told reporters Wednesday. 

    According to the Petersen Institute for international economics, U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports average around 47%, while China’s average tariffs on US exports are around 32%.

    The Chinese export juggernaut needs markets like nature abhors a vacuum, and it’s found new landing places for its voluminous container ships. Exports to the European Union increased 11.5% in December to $51.9 billion. Exports to Germany increased 13% to $11 billion. By comparison, exports to the U.S. fell 30.2% to $34.2 billon. We are seeing the wheels of human economic history turn in real time. Global trade is still inching upward every year. The rest of the world is getting on with it, leaving the U.S. behind. While ports on the East and West coasts slow their activity, they’re busy in Asia, Europe, Latin America and Africa. Exports to ASEAN nations increased 11.3% to $66.4 billion, including a 20.4% jump to Vietnam to $18.9 billion; shipments to Latin America rose 9.8% to $25.7 billion; and sales to India increased 22.1% to $12.8 billion.  

    The story of global trade right now is geopolitics. It’s the jolt of the U.S. away from its post-war free trade consensus. There is another story we’ve discussed here that is less surprising but still ongoing. It’s the move of China and other Asian countries up the value chain, away from toys and shoes and into tech and cars. At the same time, countries like Egypt, Bangladesh and Cambodia continue to build up their apparel and textile exports. 

    In December, Chinese exports of high-tech products increased 16.7% to $93.7 billion. Sales of motor vehicles increased 73.2% to 994,000. By value, they rose 71.7% to $17.1 billion. Exports of toys fell 19.4% to $2.7 billion. Shipments of footwear dropped 17.4% to $3.9 billion. 

    On the import side, China ramped up purchases 5.7% to $243.6 billion from $230.5 billion. The relationship with the EU seems more two-sided than in the past. Imports from the EU rose 17.9% to $26.9 billion, while purchases from the U.S. plummeted 28.6% to $10.9 billion. Imports from Germany increased 13.6% to $8.9 billion. Imports from Latin America increased 26.8% to $24.4 billion. Imports from India rose 56.5% to $2.2 billion.

    Buying more from Europe and Latin America was also at the expense of some Asian neighbors. Imports from ASEAN countries fell 5.1% to $35.7 billion. Even imports from Vietnam were flat at $9.5 billion. 

    Imports of high-tech products rose 13.6% to $82.6 billion. Purchases of soybeans increased 4.7% to $3.9 billion. China still needs a protein supply, and it’s getting it from Brazil instead of the U.S.

    One sign the Chinese economy is doing just fine: China ramped up purchases of natural resources. It increased quantities of imports of iron ore by 6.5%, copper 7.3%, coal 11.9%, oil 17.4%, and natural gas 90.2%.

  • TDM’s Top 10 Trade Trends to Watch in 2026

    TDM’s Top 10 Trade Trends to Watch in 2026

    Happy New Year. While we wait on the Supreme Court to rule whether the Trump administration is entitled to apply tariffs on national security grounds, global trade grinds on. We at Trade Data Monitor are paying attention to what’s happening via the prism of official trade statistics. It’s a radically different world than when I started covering trade for the Wall Street Journal 20 years ago. The biggest story is still in tech, where the economy is being transformed by investment in chips and other electronics used to make artificial intelligence systems. Shut out of the U.S., many Chinese exporters are finding new markets in Europe. Beijing is not giving up its export-dependent growth model, which in 2025 propelled the world’s first-ever trillion-dollar trade surplus. Via our system for reverse engineering trade data, we can discern that Russia’s import demand is shrinking. Vietnam is still climbing the economic ladder, thanks to an export portfolio that includes staples like toys and shoes, but also high-value electronics. Most of the world has not given up on trade. In October, global container volumes increased 2.1%. However, the U.S. is an outlier. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. saw an 8% contraction in inbound shipments. Although President Trump threatened much higher levies, the U.S. effective tariff rate is “only” around 15%. That’s its highest level since the 1930s, and it’s the main reason the WTO is now forecasting 0.5% growth in global trade in 2026, instead of 1.8%.Here are our top trade trends to watch in 2026.
    1.   The Asian Chip MiracleThe chip market is expected to reach around $750 billion in 2026 and hit $2 trillion by the early 2030s. In its latest incarnation that trend is being led by Asia. Eight of the world’s top 10 exporters of chips, classified under HS8541 and HS8542 are Asian. Only the U.S. and Germany crack the top 10. 
    Thanks in part to the chip industry, and parallel industries in batteries, engines and electronics, the electric vehicle industry is thriving. Slowly, the world’s road and filling stations are being rewired. In country after country, electric car imports have been increasing.  One consequence is booming trade in the critical minerals, like cobalt, manganese and nickel, needed to build electric cars and batteries. We’ll explore that trade in our February newsletter. 
    2.   China Finding Markets in EuropeWith the U.S. throwing up roadblocks, Chinese exporters have been finding markets in Europe. That’s triggered a crisis for European domestic manufacturers, who are now having to compete with the China price Americans have turned down.
    3.   Where is U.S.-China Trade Headed?The future of the U.S.-China trade relationship seems uncertain at best. When we added up total trade between the two behemoths, the only sector has grew in 2025 was aircraft. The U.S. shipped $12.5 billion of aircraft and aircraft parts to China in the first nine months of 2025, up 45% from the same period in 2024.
    4.   How Vietnam is Winning Global TradeAt TDM, we’ve been talking about Vietnam’s promise for a decade, so we’re not surprised to see its strong export numbers. The remarkable thing about Vietnam isn’t that it has become an export machine, it’s that its manufacturing capacity has increased across so broad a base. 5.   Russia’s Shrinking Import DemandRussia still isn’t publishing trade statistics, but thanks to the breadth of TDM’s database, we can look at which countries are shipping to Russia. Those exports to Russia are mostly shrinking, an indication of the battering Russia has been taking from the war. The IMF and other institutions predict Russian GDP growth of only around 1% in 2026. 
     6.   U.S. Imports from MexicoThe biggest beneficiary of the U.S.’s trade war with China has been Mexico. Although the two countries, and Canada, are now renegotiating the USMCA, businesses have had confidence they can manufacture in Mexico and ship north. Mexico has been suppressing data, but U.S. import statistics paint a picture.
    7.   Indian ExportsNow with the world’s biggest population, India has now overtaken Japan as the world’s fourth biggest economy, behind the U.S., China and Germany. Its top market: the U.S., followed by UAE and the Netherlands. 
    8.   Trade Case Study: EgyptTrade coverage focuses on the big countries, but we’ve been studying smaller players, and one interesting case study is Egypt. It’s been boosting apparel exports, a sign of a country’s increasing prosperity and competitiveness on export markets. In 2025, Egypt clocked the biggest increase in apparel exports, shipping out $2.6 billion in the first nine months of 2025, 30.7% more than the year before. The second highest increase was registered by Cambodia at 16.9%, and no other country improved by double digits. 9.   What States’ Ports and Economies Are Thriving MostAmerica is a huge continental economy with dozens of distinct economic regions and sea- and airports. We sorted every state by increase year-on-year in exports from the place it’s leaving the U.S., over the first nine months of 2025. Texas and California are still the biggest exporters overall, but New York leads the race in year-on, because of its trade in physical gold. Arizona ranks second because of its electronics trade with Mexico. Third is Indiana, thanks to its exports of hormones to Italy. 10.   U.S. Wine ExportsA retaliatory tariff and a “Buy Canadian” movement have dented U.S. wine exports to its northern neighbor. Instead, U.S. producers are finding replacement markets in Germany, South Africa and Japan. 
    5 News Stories To Understand This Moment in Global Trade 📰
      
    WSJ: A Shrimper, a Carmaker, a Lawyer: How the World Tackled Trump’s Trade War: A fascinating mini-survey of how businesses around the world are being impacted by tariffs.Euronews: In 2025, global trade cracked as Europe hurt by US tariffs and new China shock: An important perspective, from Europe, on how trade flows have been rerouted toward the Old World. Global Trade: U.S. Tariffs to Cost Container Carriers $.2 billion by 2026, Alphaliner Warns: The U.S. isn’t just imposing tariffs on goods, it’s putting duties on ships. AP: Trump launched global tariff wars in 2025. Here’s a recap of his trade actions this year: A useful recap of U.S. trade duties in 2025. BBC: Peru’s ‘fast and furious’ blueberry boom: An optimistic story about global trade, chronicling how Peru has become the world’s biggest blueberry exporter.
    What We’re Reading 📚
      With tariffs still beating down optimism over global trade, it’s easy to get dragged down by the political story of modern commerce. What’s lost is the triumph of human ingenuity represented by the global logistics industry figuring out how to move goods from any place in the world to any other place. My former Wall Street Journalcolleague Christopher Mims tells that story in his 2021 book Arriving Today: From Factory to Front Door—Why Everything Has Changed About How and What We Buy. In an illustrative anecdote, Mims tells the story of a USB charger. After leaving a factory in Vietnam, Mims recounts, the charger “has traveled more than 14,000 miles, across 12 times zones, by truck, barge, crane, container ship, crane, and truck again, all before it trundled down a few hundred yards of conveyor, flitted about on the back of a robot, and was ferried again on, all told, miles more conveyor and at least two more trucks, before being hand-carried to someone’s front door.”

  • Casualties of the U.S.-China Trade War: 36 Million Phones

    Casualties of the U.S.-China Trade War: 36 Million Phones

    Please Dial a New Number 

    As U.S. and Chinese negotiators try to find a way out of tariff gridlock, one thing is certain: The smartphone supply chain has shifted significantly, upending the practices and expectations of manufacturers, logistics firms, and retailers.  

    China’s exports of mobile phone fell 11.6% year-on-year in August to 60.8 million sets. In dollar terms, they declined 18.9% to $6.8 billion. For the first eight months of 2025, Chinese exports of mobile phones dropped 11.5% to $64.1 billion. The number of sets shipped shrank 7.2% to 462.5 million. 

    That’s 36 million fewer phones. 

    It’s no mystery where the capacity has shifted. In the first seven months of 2025, the U.S. has boosted smartphone imports 201.7% from India to $13.2 billion, and 170.9% from Vietnam to $3.5 billion. 

    Chinese Export Growth Slows

    Overall, total Chinese exports rose 4.4% in August to $321.8 billion, below a forecast around 5% and after increasing 7.2% in July. Shipments to the U.S. fell 33.1% to $31.6 billion. Washington currently has tariffs of around 55% on most Chinese exports, while Beijing has duties of around 30% on U.S. goods. Trade diplomats from each country have given themselves two more months to negotiate. 

    Meanwhile, China has been increasing exports elsewhere. Exports to the European Union rose 10.4% in August to $51.7 billion. Shipments to ASEAN nations rose 22.8% to $57.1 billion. Exports to Vietnam increased 31.2% to $17.6 billion. Sales to Africa increased 26% to $18.6 billion. Shipments to India increased 9.2% to $12.5 billion. 

    To be sure, there’s only so much more those countries can absorb, and analysts expect exports to level off. “With the temporary boost from the U.S.-China trade truce fading and the U.S. raising tariffs on shipments rerouted via other countries, exports are likely to come under pressure in the near term,” Zichun Huang, China of Capital Economics wrote in a note. The U.S. has been concerned about transshipment and is implementing penalties for goods it believes originate in China.

    One country already buying less from China is Russia. Chinese exports to the warring nation fell 16.6% to $8.5 billion. So far this year, exports to Russia have fallen 9.7% to $64.8 billion. 

    Buying More Soybeans

    The U.S. has been pushing China to buy more soybeans. In August, soybean imports increased 1.1% by quantity to 12.3 million tons, but fell 8.6% by value to $5.5 billion. Imports of agricultural products declined 2.9% in August to $18.7 billion. Grain exports increased 7.1% to 217,816 tons but because of falling prices fell 11% by dollar value to $102 million. Overall, exports of agricultural products fell 3.8% to $8.1 billion.

    Rare Earth Exports Rise 

    Washington has also been lobbying for easier trade in rare earths minerals. Exports of rare earths increased 34.6% in August to $55 million. By quantity, they increased 22.6% to 5.791.8 tons. Exports of high-tech products increased 9% to $79.3 billion. Sales of China’s manufacturing staples continued their long, slow fall. Exports of footwear declined 17.1% to $3.3 billion, sales of toys fell 20.9% to $3.2 billion, and shipments of household appliances dropped 6.6% to $8.4 billion. 

    China’s Long-Term Cut in Imports

    Total Chinese imports increased 1.3% to $219.5 billion, as the country stabilizes as more of a self-sustaining market. Imports were down 6% from $233.4 billion in August 2022. In the first seven months of 2025, China reduced imports 2.2% to $1.7 trillion. 

    China is buying less from all its trading partners. In August, imports from the European Union fell 1.8% to $22.8 billion, purchases from the U.S. declined 15.8% to $11.3 billion, and shipments from ASEAN countries fell 3.8% to $32.8 billion. Imports from Africa declined 6.9% to $9.6 billion. Imports from Russia dropped 18.7% to $9.4 billion. 

    There were some exceptions: Imports from Vietnam rose 4.6% to $8.9 billion, and purchases from India rose 16.2% to $1.5 billion, a relatively small number. Imports of high-tech products rose 3.5% to $67.3 billion. 

    To be sure, even as it buys more of what it produces, China still needs raw materials. Imports of copper ore and concentrates increased 7.4% to 2.8 million tons. However, China continued to cut its coal imports: Purchases of the black rock dropped 6.7% to 42.7 million tons.

  • China Ramps Up Exports to Vietnam Amid Transshipment Worries

    China Ramps Up Exports to Vietnam Amid Transshipment Worries

    Made in Vietnam (or China)

    At a time when trade officials around the world are closely watching Vietnam’s evolving place in the global trading system, Chinese exports to the new Asian economic power in June boomed 23.8% year-on-year to $16.3 billion.

    The U.S.-China trade war has pushed attention of U.S. trade negotiators toward manufacturing powers such as Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia. 

    Vietnam has had a trade deal with the U.S. for over 20 years. The country is now the U.S.’s sixth biggest source of imports, after Mexico, Canada, China, Ireland, and Switzerland. Vietnam is actually the fifth biggest source if you take away gold shipments from Switzerland. 

    Earlier this month, President Trump announced a new trade deal with Vietnam that includes 20% tariffs on U.S. imports from the Asian country. With one exception: 40% tariffs on imports from Vietnam that are “transshipped” from China. That set off an effort by Vietnamese trade officials to certify which goods made in their country are in fact domestic and not repackaged Chinese fare. 

    With shipments from China increasing so fast, they’ll have their work cut out for them, especially as the economic relationship appears to be growing more one-sided: China’s imports from Vietnam in June shrank 13.4% year-on-year to $7.6 billion. 

    China’s Resilient Export Economy

    The pressure of the trade war with the U.S. shows no signs of abating. Chinese negotiators now face an August 12 deadline to set new trade terms with the U.S.

    Overall, Chinese exports in June rose 5.8% year-on-year to $325.2 billion. Beijing is successfully weathering the storm: Current duties on Chinese imports vary by product but are at an average of around 55%, according to a recent social media post by President Trump. 

    Exports to the U.S. fell 16.1% to $38.2 billion. However, that decline was lower than the fall in May, and it’s been counterbalanced by an increase in sales to other countries. 

    The rebound in trade with Europe appears significant. Exports to the European Union rose 7.6% to $49.2 billion. Shipments to Germany increased 3.6% to $10.1 billion. Exports to Italy and France both rose by double-digit figures. European countries stand to benefit from the loss of export markets in the U.S. Buyers there can snap up excess production that can’t find a home in the U.S., and benefit from lower prices.

    Exports to Africa leapt 34.9% to $19.6 billion. Exports to ASEAN countries improved 17% to $58.2 billion. Exports to Brazil fell 8% to $6.1 billion. 

    The Russia Relationship

    After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Beijing and Moscow forged a close trade relationship, but that appears to be crumbling. Russia shipped raw materials to China, and bought electronics, especially for the war effort. But in June, exports to Russia declined 16.2% year-on-year to $8.3 billion. Imports from Russia fell 11.2% to $9.3 billion. To be sure, a big part of the decline can be attributed to the struggles of Russia’s economy.

    Cars, Not Phones

    China’s main casualty of the trade war might be smartphones. Exports of mobile phones fell 8.8% to $7.4 billion. However, overall exports of high-tech products rose 7.3% to $78.1 billion. The Chinese export economy appears increasingly geared toward high-tech industrial goods, especially cars. Exports of motor vehicles increased 23% to $10.8 billion. Exports of ships leapt 23.7% to $4.5 billion. Shipments of agricultural products declined 6.2% to $8.1 billion. Exports of suitcases, textiles and footwear all continued their decline.   

    The Chinese Economy 

    Concerns remain about Chinese demand and the country’s domestic economy. In June, total imports increased only 1% year-on-year to $210.4 billion. 

    Imports from the U.S. fell 14.8% to $11.6 billion. Imports from the EU, however, notched up 0.6% to $23.3 billion, another sign of Brussels taking a different tack toward China than Washington. Imports of agricultural products increased 2% to $18.5 billon. Imports of high-tech products increased 10% to $67.7 billion. Imports of integrated circuits rose 11.6% to $34.6 billion. Although purchases of crude petroleum and natural gas increased, imports of coal fell 25.8% to 33 million tons. 

    And, despite the success so far in withstanding pressure from the U.S., the Chinese economy will keep taking punches from the trade war. “Tariffs are likely to remain high and Chinese manufacturers face growing constraints on their ability to rapidly expand global market share by slashing prices,” wrote Capital Economics in a note. “We therefore expect export growth to slow over the coming quarters, weighing on economic growth.” 

  • China Hikes Iron Ore, Copper Imports Amid Car Building Boom

    China Hikes Iron Ore, Copper Imports Amid Car Building Boom

    In the somewhat gloomy December and annual China trade statistics released in the second week of January was buried a piece of data that hearkened back to the boom years of Chinese commodity consumption: China is buying a lot more iron ore and copper.

    In December, China boosted iron ore imports 11.1% year-on-year to 100.9 million tons, worth $12.4 billion. Copper imports rose 18.2% to 2.5 million tons, worth $5.3 billon. These confirmed ongoing trends. For all of 2023, iron ore imports rose 6.6% to 1.2 billion tons, worth $134 billion. For the year, copper purchases rose 9.1% to 27.5 million tons, worth $60.1 billion.

    But the reasons for the big increase is no longer buildings and highways of a society punching its way into to global prosperity as it was in the early 2000s. Instead, these rising industrial commodity purchases are underpinned by China’s booming automobile and shipbuilding industries. Car exports rose 52% year-on-year in December to $8.9 billion. China, in fact, is set to pass Japan this year as the world’s number one auto exporter. Exports of ships, a related industry, increased 28.6% to $3.2 billion. 

    The headline numbers were less bullish, but perhaps not as bad as many feared, for China and the global economy. Total exports rose only 2.3% in December to $303.6 billion from $296.9 billion a year ago. For the year, exports dropped 4.6% to $3.4 trillion, a decline Chinese officials attributed to a faltering global economy. “The global economic recovery has been weak in the past year,” Lyu Daliang, a government spokesperson. “Sluggish external demand has hit China’s exports. Exports to the U.S. dropped 4.8% to $42.2 billion. Exports to ASEAN countries improved 0.4% to $50.2 billion. Exports to the EU dropped 1% to $42.8 billon. 

    Among the bright spots in partner countries, Chinese exports to India increased 8.5% to $10.5 billion, shipment to Russia increased 22.5% to $10.7 billion, and sales to Africa increased 9.5% to $15.3 billion. 

    There was a recovery in high-tech trade, driven by more demand for semiconductors and digital equipment. The work from home economy driven by the Covid-19 pandemic has subsided some, but it’s caused enough structural changes to undergird a new tech economy. For December, shipments of high-tech products increased 0.5% year-on-year to $77 billion, suggesting that the sector might be turning a corner after a dismal year. For all of 2023, high-tech exports dropped 10.8% year-on-year to $842.5 billion.

    Industrial commodities dented exports more than high-tech trade. China shrank exports of petroleum products 39.8% to 4.7 million tons. By value, they decreased 42.7% to $3.7 billion. Exports of fertilizers fell 26.8% to $707 million. Exports of steel products rose 45.4% to 7.7 million tons but they were sold at a discount. By value, they declined 8.7% to $6.4 million.

    The increases in copper and iron ore purchases were among outliers in Chinese imports. Total imports increased 0.2% to $228.3 billion from $227.9 billion. For the year, imports declined 5.5% to $2.6 trillion. China increased imports from the EU 0.4% to $24 billon. Imports from the U.S. dropped 4.3% to $14.9 billon. Imports from ASEAN countries fell 2.4% to $35.7 billion. There were a few bright spots among trading partners. Imports from India rose 24.1% to $1.5 billion. Imports from Russia increased 23.1% to $11.2 billion. Imports from Africa rose 4.3% to $8.8 billion. 

    And China’s appetite for coal, driven largely by demand from new power plants generating power for cities and a new generation of electric vehicles, showed no signs of abating. China increased coal imports 53% to 47.3 million tons, and by value 22.8% to $5.2 billion. For the year, China hiked purchases of the black rock 61.8% to 474.4 million tons, worth $53 billions.

    John W. Miller