The Trillion-Dollar Surplus
In 2024, China recorded the biggest global trade surplus in economic history at $992 billion, according to preliminary data released Monday by Beijing. The gap, beating the previous record of $838 billion in 2022, is almost certainly unsustainable. Amid worsening relations with the U.S., Europe and Canada, it may never pass the trillion-dollar mark. But it’s important to parse the data and grasp the nuances in Chinese trade. Not all trade relationships are created equal.
One macroeconomic fact is undeniable. China’s trade surplus is a colossus, representing a history-making investment by Western companies and countries this century into making goods in China at low costs for export to markets around the world. For the year, Chinese exports increased 5.9% from 2023 to $3.6 trillion. Imports rose 1.1% to $2.6 trillion.
In Beijing on Monday, as they presented their results, including the near-trillion-dollar surplus, trade officials crowed about their affirmation of China as the world’s dominant exporter. China “has consolidated its status as the world’s largest merchandise exporter,” Wang Lingjun, a senior customs official, told reporters in Beijing.
Problems With the Surplus
But that narrative leaves out some key facts. One is that businesses have been hustling to get Chinese goods across borders before fresh tariffs hit in 2025, artificially goosing exports. Another is that China has become a depressed consumer market, which too many goods chasing not enough customers, forcing prices to drop. That said, in certain niche sectors, especially automobiles and integrated circuits used in artificial intelligence, China’s manufacturing is set to be a big buyer and seller for years to come. Exports of high-tech products increased 4.4% year-on-year to $80.3 billion in December.
Buy Before Close
With President Donald Trump’s inauguration looming on Jan. 20, there has certainly been an incentive to load up on Made in China-goods. Trump has threatened to slap 60% import tariffs on Chinese imports. In December, total Chinese exports rose 10.7% year-on-year to $335.6 billion. Sales to the U.S. increased 15.7% year-on-year to $48.8 billion. Exports to the European Union rose 8.8% year-on-year to $46.5 billion. Only a few regions notched diminished exports. Shipments to Australia fell 11.8% to $5.7 billion. The two powers have been locked in a tense trade relationship for years, but some export restrictions were lifted this year.
Selling Cars to Brazil and Ships to Everybody
For the year, the biggest increase in market share was Brazil, which has been gobbling up Chinese electronics and cars. Exports to the South American power rose 22% to $72.1 billion. The biggest decline was sales to the Netherlands, which fell 9% to $91.2 billion. The European port country has slashed imports of an array of Chinese goods such as machinery, toys and cars. China has been leading the world’s electric vehicle boom. The country shipped out 6.4 million cars in 2024, a 22.8% increase from 2023. The value of all those vehicles: $117.4 billion, up 15.5%. But now it’s facing tariffs from the EU, Canada, and the U.S. It’s not just with the U.S. that China has a difficult trade relationship. The EU has imposed tariffs as high as 45% on imports of Chinese electric vehicles. Beijing has retaliated with duties on brandy and other European exports. But it’s clear that China has more to lose in the battle. Another market that dropped: South Africa. Exports there dropped 7.8% to $21.8 billion. One sector that keeps growing and points to an optimistic scenario for global trade is the increase in Chinese exports of ships. For the year, exports of ships rose 25.1% to 5,804. By value, they increased 57.3% to$ 43.4 billon.
The Problem With Demand
Chinese officials are still struggling to boost their own domestic economy, which has been threatened by a real estate slump, among other things. For the year, Chinese agricultural imports shrank 7.9% to $215.2 billion. But even in sectors with good volumes, it’s hard to make money, because prices have been falling. Imports of soybeans, for example, rose 6.5% to 105 million tons, although they declined by value, dropping 10.9% to $52.8 billion. The country with the largest increase in imports into China in 2024 was South Korea. Chinese purchases from the Asian neighbor rose 12.4% to $181.7 billion. The biggest drop in imports was from Germany, which declined 10.7% to $94.8 billion. To be sure, Germany is only China’s 10th largest source of imports, after (in order) Taiwan, South Korea, the U.S., Japan, Australia, Russia, Brazil, Malaysia and Vietnam. China’s trade habits have been disappointing to a lot of German exporters, but not to Asian tech firms. Overall high-tech imports in 2024 rose 10.7% to $753 billion, and shipments from the ASEAN group of Asian neighbors increased 2% to $395.8 billion.
John W. Miller