Trade Data Monitor

Industry: Smartphones

  • How AI Is Driving Global Trade

    How AI Is Driving Global Trade

    Lower Growth in China 

    In early March, Chinese leadership set their lowest gross domestic product growth target since 1991, forecasting a 4.5% to 5% expansion for its economy in 2026. 

    This week, China reported a 21.8% year-on-year increase in exports for January and February to $656.6 billion. To avoid distorted numbers because of Chinese New Year, the government in Beijing always reports combined trade data for the two months of the year. 

    This big increase handily beat analyst predictions, and, after a modest 6.6% year-on-year bump in December, defied aggressive action by the U.S. to curb commerce with China. 

    Part of the Chinese trade resurgence is due to an intentional strategy by Chinese policymakers to goose exports by cutting prices and finding new markets. Exports to ASEAN countries rose 29.4% to $112.6 billion, while shipments to the EU expanded 27.8% to $101 billion.

    The AI Global Trade Economy

    Another reason for the increase is the booming tech economy based around intense investments in artificial intelligence technology. China’s exports of integrated circuits, a category which includes the semiconductors used to power AI systems, increased 72.6% to $43.3 billion. Imports of those circuits jumped 39.8% to $78.2 billion.

    The AI buildout is happening around the world, and it’s changing the composition of the Chinese tech economy. Suppliers once flocked to China to manufacture finished consumer goods like smartphones. Now, they’re more likely to make electronic and industrial parts in China that then get finished in other countries. That’s why exports of mobile phones dropped 8.3% to $17.1 billion, even as overall shipments of high-tech products rose 26.9% to $167.2 billion. 

    One consumer product China is still dominating: Cars. Chinese exports of motor vehicles kept on vrooming upward, rising 57.9% to 1.5 million units. By value, they increased 67.1% to $27 billion. 

    China’s surplus only appears to be growing, raising the stakes around the world for protectionist policies. In 2025, China ran a record $1.2 trillion surplus. 

    U.S.-China Trade in Flux

    In one respect, the U.S. strategy to restrict trade is working: Exports to the U.S. dropped 11% to $67.2 billion. In February, the Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration was illegally using an emergency power to apply tariffs on foreign imports. In response, Trump promised to a standard 10% tariff that he will eventually bump up to 15%. That could end up helping China, as it lowers their tariff rate relative to other countries. 

    However, China has been ramping up exports to other countries. Sales to France rose 31.9% to $8.5 billion, exports to Italy leapt 36.4% to $9.9 billion, and shipments to Russia rose 22.7% to $18.3 billion. 

    China has abandoned the low-tech staples of its early economic development, but with so much capacity, there have been occasional resurgence in the manufacture and exports of some categories. Exports of furniture, for example, rose 24.7% to $12.4 billion. However, shipments of toys ticked up only 1.5% to $5.1 billion. 

    The Importance of the Chinese Consumer

    Despite the low growth expectations, total imports increased 19.8% to $443 billion. China’s consumers have more appetite, and money, for purchasing foreign goods. Policymakers in Beijing have been focused on getting consumers in China to spend and invest more. At the same time, exporting manufacturers need raw materials and parts for making their goods. Imports of high-tech products increased 27.7% to $139.8 billion. 

    One thing is certain: They’re not buying American. Imports from the U.S. fell 26.7% to $19.4 billon. Trump is due to visit China at the end of March. 

    By comparison, imports from the European Union increased 11.7% to $41.2 billion, and purchases from ASEAN nations rose 12.9% to $63.9 billion. One region increasingly benefitted from China’s importing strategy is Latin America. Imports, mostly of commodities like copper, iron ore, and soybeans, jumped 28.9% to $46.5 billion. Notably, imports from France rose 28.2% to $6.1 billion, and imports from Russia increased 4.1% to $20.8 billion. 

    One item China will likely have to import more of is petroleum, as the war in Iran scrambles supply routes around the Strait of Hormuz. In the first two months, China hiked imports of crude 15.8% to 96.9 million tons. 

  • Global Trade is Moving On — Without the U.S.

    Global Trade is Moving On — Without the U.S.

    One way of looking at China’s trade economy in December and for the full 2025 year is its export surge, amplified by a weak currency, deflation at home, and inflation in most of the rest of the world. China pumped up total monthly exports 6.6% to $357.8 billion in December from $335.6 billion over the same period in 2024. 

    Here’s another angle: Washington’s efforts to crimp Beijing’s industrial sector have resulted in diminished U.S.-China trade, but even bigger Chinese surpluses with the rest of the world, and evolutions in global trade that are simply leaving America behind. For the full year, China exported $3.8 trillion worth of goods. Minus imports, that made for a total surplus of $1.19 trillion, the biggest in recorded economic history. 

    Chinese officials themselves have drawn direct links between U.S. policy and its surplus, saying in effect that without tariffs, Beijing would have bought more goods from the rest of the world. “Some countries have politicized economic and trade issues and restricted exports of high-tech products to China for various reasons; otherwise, we would have imported even more,” Wang Jun, a Chinese trade official, told reporters Wednesday. 

    According to the Petersen Institute for international economics, U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports average around 47%, while China’s average tariffs on US exports are around 32%.

    The Chinese export juggernaut needs markets like nature abhors a vacuum, and it’s found new landing places for its voluminous container ships. Exports to the European Union increased 11.5% in December to $51.9 billion. Exports to Germany increased 13% to $11 billion. By comparison, exports to the U.S. fell 30.2% to $34.2 billon. We are seeing the wheels of human economic history turn in real time. Global trade is still inching upward every year. The rest of the world is getting on with it, leaving the U.S. behind. While ports on the East and West coasts slow their activity, they’re busy in Asia, Europe, Latin America and Africa. Exports to ASEAN nations increased 11.3% to $66.4 billion, including a 20.4% jump to Vietnam to $18.9 billion; shipments to Latin America rose 9.8% to $25.7 billion; and sales to India increased 22.1% to $12.8 billion.  

    The story of global trade right now is geopolitics. It’s the jolt of the U.S. away from its post-war free trade consensus. There is another story we’ve discussed here that is less surprising but still ongoing. It’s the move of China and other Asian countries up the value chain, away from toys and shoes and into tech and cars. At the same time, countries like Egypt, Bangladesh and Cambodia continue to build up their apparel and textile exports. 

    In December, Chinese exports of high-tech products increased 16.7% to $93.7 billion. Sales of motor vehicles increased 73.2% to 994,000. By value, they rose 71.7% to $17.1 billion. Exports of toys fell 19.4% to $2.7 billion. Shipments of footwear dropped 17.4% to $3.9 billion. 

    On the import side, China ramped up purchases 5.7% to $243.6 billion from $230.5 billion. The relationship with the EU seems more two-sided than in the past. Imports from the EU rose 17.9% to $26.9 billion, while purchases from the U.S. plummeted 28.6% to $10.9 billion. Imports from Germany increased 13.6% to $8.9 billion. Imports from Latin America increased 26.8% to $24.4 billion. Imports from India rose 56.5% to $2.2 billion.

    Buying more from Europe and Latin America was also at the expense of some Asian neighbors. Imports from ASEAN countries fell 5.1% to $35.7 billion. Even imports from Vietnam were flat at $9.5 billion. 

    Imports of high-tech products rose 13.6% to $82.6 billion. Purchases of soybeans increased 4.7% to $3.9 billion. China still needs a protein supply, and it’s getting it from Brazil instead of the U.S.

    One sign the Chinese economy is doing just fine: China ramped up purchases of natural resources. It increased quantities of imports of iron ore by 6.5%, copper 7.3%, coal 11.9%, oil 17.4%, and natural gas 90.2%.

  • TDM’s Top 10 Trade Trends to Watch in 2026

    TDM’s Top 10 Trade Trends to Watch in 2026

    Happy New Year. While we wait on the Supreme Court to rule whether the Trump administration is entitled to apply tariffs on national security grounds, global trade grinds on. We at Trade Data Monitor are paying attention to what’s happening via the prism of official trade statistics. It’s a radically different world than when I started covering trade for the Wall Street Journal 20 years ago. The biggest story is still in tech, where the economy is being transformed by investment in chips and other electronics used to make artificial intelligence systems. Shut out of the U.S., many Chinese exporters are finding new markets in Europe. Beijing is not giving up its export-dependent growth model, which in 2025 propelled the world’s first-ever trillion-dollar trade surplus. Via our system for reverse engineering trade data, we can discern that Russia’s import demand is shrinking. Vietnam is still climbing the economic ladder, thanks to an export portfolio that includes staples like toys and shoes, but also high-value electronics. Most of the world has not given up on trade. In October, global container volumes increased 2.1%. However, the U.S. is an outlier. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. saw an 8% contraction in inbound shipments. Although President Trump threatened much higher levies, the U.S. effective tariff rate is “only” around 15%. That’s its highest level since the 1930s, and it’s the main reason the WTO is now forecasting 0.5% growth in global trade in 2026, instead of 1.8%.Here are our top trade trends to watch in 2026.
    1.   The Asian Chip MiracleThe chip market is expected to reach around $750 billion in 2026 and hit $2 trillion by the early 2030s. In its latest incarnation that trend is being led by Asia. Eight of the world’s top 10 exporters of chips, classified under HS8541 and HS8542 are Asian. Only the U.S. and Germany crack the top 10. 
    Thanks in part to the chip industry, and parallel industries in batteries, engines and electronics, the electric vehicle industry is thriving. Slowly, the world’s road and filling stations are being rewired. In country after country, electric car imports have been increasing.  One consequence is booming trade in the critical minerals, like cobalt, manganese and nickel, needed to build electric cars and batteries. We’ll explore that trade in our February newsletter. 
    2.   China Finding Markets in EuropeWith the U.S. throwing up roadblocks, Chinese exporters have been finding markets in Europe. That’s triggered a crisis for European domestic manufacturers, who are now having to compete with the China price Americans have turned down.
    3.   Where is U.S.-China Trade Headed?The future of the U.S.-China trade relationship seems uncertain at best. When we added up total trade between the two behemoths, the only sector has grew in 2025 was aircraft. The U.S. shipped $12.5 billion of aircraft and aircraft parts to China in the first nine months of 2025, up 45% from the same period in 2024.
    4.   How Vietnam is Winning Global TradeAt TDM, we’ve been talking about Vietnam’s promise for a decade, so we’re not surprised to see its strong export numbers. The remarkable thing about Vietnam isn’t that it has become an export machine, it’s that its manufacturing capacity has increased across so broad a base. 5.   Russia’s Shrinking Import DemandRussia still isn’t publishing trade statistics, but thanks to the breadth of TDM’s database, we can look at which countries are shipping to Russia. Those exports to Russia are mostly shrinking, an indication of the battering Russia has been taking from the war. The IMF and other institutions predict Russian GDP growth of only around 1% in 2026. 
     6.   U.S. Imports from MexicoThe biggest beneficiary of the U.S.’s trade war with China has been Mexico. Although the two countries, and Canada, are now renegotiating the USMCA, businesses have had confidence they can manufacture in Mexico and ship north. Mexico has been suppressing data, but U.S. import statistics paint a picture.
    7.   Indian ExportsNow with the world’s biggest population, India has now overtaken Japan as the world’s fourth biggest economy, behind the U.S., China and Germany. Its top market: the U.S., followed by UAE and the Netherlands. 
    8.   Trade Case Study: EgyptTrade coverage focuses on the big countries, but we’ve been studying smaller players, and one interesting case study is Egypt. It’s been boosting apparel exports, a sign of a country’s increasing prosperity and competitiveness on export markets. In 2025, Egypt clocked the biggest increase in apparel exports, shipping out $2.6 billion in the first nine months of 2025, 30.7% more than the year before. The second highest increase was registered by Cambodia at 16.9%, and no other country improved by double digits. 9.   What States’ Ports and Economies Are Thriving MostAmerica is a huge continental economy with dozens of distinct economic regions and sea- and airports. We sorted every state by increase year-on-year in exports from the place it’s leaving the U.S., over the first nine months of 2025. Texas and California are still the biggest exporters overall, but New York leads the race in year-on, because of its trade in physical gold. Arizona ranks second because of its electronics trade with Mexico. Third is Indiana, thanks to its exports of hormones to Italy. 10.   U.S. Wine ExportsA retaliatory tariff and a “Buy Canadian” movement have dented U.S. wine exports to its northern neighbor. Instead, U.S. producers are finding replacement markets in Germany, South Africa and Japan. 
    5 News Stories To Understand This Moment in Global Trade 📰
      
    WSJ: A Shrimper, a Carmaker, a Lawyer: How the World Tackled Trump’s Trade War: A fascinating mini-survey of how businesses around the world are being impacted by tariffs.Euronews: In 2025, global trade cracked as Europe hurt by US tariffs and new China shock: An important perspective, from Europe, on how trade flows have been rerouted toward the Old World. Global Trade: U.S. Tariffs to Cost Container Carriers $.2 billion by 2026, Alphaliner Warns: The U.S. isn’t just imposing tariffs on goods, it’s putting duties on ships. AP: Trump launched global tariff wars in 2025. Here’s a recap of his trade actions this year: A useful recap of U.S. trade duties in 2025. BBC: Peru’s ‘fast and furious’ blueberry boom: An optimistic story about global trade, chronicling how Peru has become the world’s biggest blueberry exporter.
    What We’re Reading 📚
      With tariffs still beating down optimism over global trade, it’s easy to get dragged down by the political story of modern commerce. What’s lost is the triumph of human ingenuity represented by the global logistics industry figuring out how to move goods from any place in the world to any other place. My former Wall Street Journalcolleague Christopher Mims tells that story in his 2021 book Arriving Today: From Factory to Front Door—Why Everything Has Changed About How and What We Buy. In an illustrative anecdote, Mims tells the story of a USB charger. After leaving a factory in Vietnam, Mims recounts, the charger “has traveled more than 14,000 miles, across 12 times zones, by truck, barge, crane, container ship, crane, and truck again, all before it trundled down a few hundred yards of conveyor, flitted about on the back of a robot, and was ferried again on, all told, miles more conveyor and at least two more trucks, before being hand-carried to someone’s front door.”

  • Is Global Trade Too Strong for Tariffs?

    Is Global Trade Too Strong for Tariffs?

    Global Trade Can Take a Punch

    This month, markets have swerved to adjust to the threat of new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. Yet, global trade keeps finding a way. In September, although shipments to the U.S. plummeted, China’s monthly exports increased 8.3% year-on-year to $328.6 billion.

    One way of looking at the stubborn performance of China’s export machine, and the global trading system, is that the swift emergence of an infrastructure that can function without the U.S.. “This resilience shows that China has strengthened trade with the rest of the world amid US protectionism,” ING Bank economist Lynn Song wrote in a published note Monday.

    To be sure, both China and the U.S have talked up the possibility of more radical constrictions on trade that would put more of a dent in the global economy, but so far this year, trade has been surprisingly robust. 

    The Supereconomies

    At the World Trade Organization’s forum last month, there was talk of how a multilateral trade deal might be conceived even if Washington didn’t join the party. But, despite new duties, even the U.S. is having a decent year trading with the rest of the world. In the first seven months of 2025, U.S. imports increased 11% to $2.1 trillion, while exports rose 4.6% to $1.2 trillion. 

    What’s going on here? 

    The simplest explanation is that the world’s two supereconomies are both so populated and wealthy that businesses can find opportunities to buy and sell despite governments’ new tax burdens. 

    To boot, China and the U.S. are less and less intertwined with each other, meaning that their trade dispute has less of an impact on the global economy that it would have a decade ago. 

    Ten years ago, in the first nine months of 2015, the U.S. accounted for 18%, or $303.8 billion, of China’s $1.7 trillion of exports. This year, in the first nine months of 2025, the U.S. was worth only 11.4%, or $317.2 billion, of China’s $2.8 trillion of exports. In September, exports to the U.S. dropped 27% to $34.3 billion. 

    The World is a Big Place

    To replace the U.S. markets, Chinese-based manufacturers, many of which are connected to U.S. and European corporations, have been finding substitute markets. In September, Exports to ASEAN countries increased 15.8% to $53.7 billion. Particularly, exports to Vietnam rose 24.6% to $16.7 billion. Exports to the European Union rose 14.2% to $48 billion. 

    One place that is becoming less valuable to Chinese exports: Russia, where exports dropped 21% to $8.9 billion.

    China’s economy has faced its own set of challenges, including a credit crisis and housing bubble. But in September, total imports increased 7.4% to $238.1 billion, despite imports from the U.S. falling 16.1% to $11.5 billion. Imports from the EU rose 9.5% to $25.2 billion, compensating for imports from ASEAN nations slipping 0.8% to $36.5 billion. 

    The Strength of Heavy Industry 

    The real reason for the boost in imports is an increase in purchases of industrial commodities. Imports of copper increased 6.4% to 2.6 million tons. Iron ore purchases rose 11.9% to 116.3 million tons. These came from commodity-rich nations in Africa and Latin America. Imports from Africa increased 22.5% to $10.6 billion, and purchases from Latin America rose 18.6% to $23.3 billion. China has been reducing its intake of fossil fuels. Coal imports in September fell 3.3% to 46 million tons. 

    All that metal is getting turned into a car industry that have overtaken the U.S. In September, automobile exports increased 10.8% to $12.8 billion. 

    In many cases, companies are overcoming protectionism for a simple reason: They can afford it. For example, in September, China’s exports of rare earths declined 4.3% by quantity, to 4,000.3 tons. By prices, they roughly doubled in value to $60 million. It’s often said that rare earths are essential for modern electronics, and that’s true, but the quantities required are miniscule, and even when supply gets tightened and prices spike, affordable.  

    There are real signs that tariffs and faltering consumer demand are denting exports of manufacturing staples. Exports of toys, for example, fell 28% to $2.9 billion. Sales of shoes fell 13.2% to $2.9 billion. Exports of household appliances dropped 9.6% to $7.7 billion. 

    One good sign for global trade: exports of ships increased 24% to 543 from 438. By value, sales rose 43% to $6.6 billion. Ships are becoming more valuable because firms need them.

  • Global Coal Trade is Finally Faltering

    Global Coal Trade is Finally Faltering

    China Cuts Coal Imports

    For years, as governments around the world embraced clean energy technology, coal trade held steady because China was still buying. As the rest of the world turned away from coal, China boosted imports to power its booming electrification, and a vibrant new industry of electric vehicles and batteries. In 2024, it imported 352.2 million metric tons of coal, up 79% from 197 million in 2019. 

    This year, China is finally giving up the rock. In July, its purchases of coal dropped 22.9% year-on-year by volume to 35.6 million tons, while boosting imports of other energy sources. Imports of natural gas rose 82.4% to 10.6 million tons, and imports of crude petroleum oil increased 11.5% to 47.2 million tons.

    China diminished imports from its top sources: Russia, Australia, Mongolia and Indonesia. The only country it increased coal imports from was Canada, boosting imports 13.3% to 5.4 million tons. 

    So what is going on? China has been producing more coal domestically and also developing more alternative energy sources such as wind and solar. It’s also transforming its economy to become less dependent on global trade, by ramping up production in assets like coal, where it has abundant resources. Exports of fertilizers rose 134.5% to $2.1 billion, and exports of agricultural products increased 1.6% to $8.4 billion.

    Adjusting to U.S. Tariffs

    The switch is just one of the ways China has been adjusting to duties from its biggest export market. How the world adapts to a newly protectionist U.S. is one of the most important economic stories of the decade. On Thursday, August, 7, Washington slapped duties from 10% to 41% on hundreds of billions worth of imports from dozens of countries. 

    Also on Thursday, China said its overall goods exports increased 7.2% in July to $321.8 billion, surpassing the expectations of analysts who’d predicted growth of around 6%. Exports to the U.S., however, fell 21.6% to $35.8 billion, while imports from the U.S. shrank 18.6% to $12.1 billion. 

    Current U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports vary, but are generally around 45%. The U.S. has also eliminated the de minimis exemption, which allowed companies to ship goods worth under $800 into the U.S. tariff free. 

    Negotiators from Washington and Beijing are currently negotiating a new agreement governing tariffs between the two countries. The two sides have set an August 12 deadline, after which they’ve threatened to impose duties of over 100%, which would cripple trade between the world’s dominant trading economies.

    Destination Europe

    One surprising development has been how much China has managed to redirect its exports into the European Union. Officials from Brussels visited Beijing last month. Shipments into the EU increased 9.3% in July to $50 billion, even as imports from the EU declined 1.4% to 24.5 billion. 

    Less surprisingly, exports to ASEAN nations rose 16.8% to $54.6 billion, led by shipments to Vietnam increased 28.1% to $17.1 billion. Imports from ASEAN nations fell 5.4% to $31.4 billion. Exports to Russia continued their decline, falling 9% to $9.1 billion. 

    Supply Chains or Domestic Demand?

    China’s total imports rose 4.1% in July to $223.5 billion. The increase in imports was driven by increases in commodity shipments from Africa, up 20.3% to $10.6 billion, Latin America, up 12% to $22.1 billion, and India, 26.4% to $1.7 billion. 

    Just as the new American dream appears to be a self-contained continental market, so it goes for China. It’s now a country that makes everything. All it needs is raw materials. Imports of agricultural products rose 5.4% to $18.7 billion. One essential question is how much the trade is focused on supplying the domestic market, and how much is part of global manufacturing supply chains. 

    Phone and Cars

    Shipments of high-tech products rose 4.3% to $78.1 billion. Exports of mobile phones, however, fell 21.8% to $7.5 billion, signaling that China could losing one of the mainstays of its export economy. In the first half of 2025, the U.S. cut smartphone imports from China 27.6% to $11.2 billion from tripling them from India to $11.6 billion. That might change as President Trump moves to slap duties on India. Imports of high-tech products rose 7.9% to $71.9 billion, and exports of chips and integrated circuits increased 29.4% to $17.9 billion. 

    When it comes to cars, China has already become a country that makes way more than it takes. Exports of motor vehicles rose 18.5% to $11.8 billion. Imports of motor vehicles dropped 42.1% to $2.5 billion. 

    Toy sales fell 3.2% to $3.5 billion.