Shake-up in Global Steel
The world of steel trade is in for a shake-up. New climate rules in Europe, the prospect of ramped-up U.S. tariffs on steel and an excess of Chinese steel imports mean companies around the world must calibrate their trade strategies in 2024.
With the U.S. locked in protectionism and the EU implementing climate rules, the action is shifting to countries like Turkey and Asian markets such as the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea.
The Turkish Solution
The world’s top importers of iron and steel (HS72), including scrap, during the first eight months of 2024 were Turkey (26.2 million tons), Italy (16.1 million tons), the U.S. (16 million tons), China (15.1 million tons), India (14 million tons), South Korea (11.9 million tons), Spain (9.7 million tons), Thailand (9.6 million tons), and Indonesia (8.7 million tons).
Turkey’s top categories of iron and steel imports were scrap (13.5 million tons), semifinished products (4.2 million tons), flat-rolled (2.9 million tons), flat-rolled alloy (1 million tons), and pig iron (879,098 tons). Turkey’s best suppliers of iron and steel are the U.S. (3.1 million tons), Russia (3 million tons), China (2.3 million tons).
Trump is Back
The biggest news of 2024 is the re-election of so-called Tariff Man Donald Trump to the White House. Trump has promised to install 60% tariffs on all goods imported from China and 10% tariffs on goods imported from all over the world. Trump already imposed steel and aluminum duties during his first term that the Biden administration lifted in 2021. The moves increased costs for industries such as cars, machinery, appliances and infrastructure products made with imported steel.
The U.S. imported $24.1 billion worth of iron and steel in the first nine months of 2024. Its top partners were Canada ($5.9 billion), Brazil ($3.7 billion), Mexico ($2.4 billion), South Korea ($1.4 billion) and Germany ($1.1 billion). By quantity, the U.S.’s top categories of iron and steel imports are flat-rolled clad, plated or coated (3.6 million tons), semifinished (2.8 million tons), and flat-rolled not clad, plated or coated (2.1 million tons).
Europe’s Calling Card
Don’t count out Europe. In the first eight months of 2024, European iron and steel importers amounted to 34.7 million tons, up 3.3% from 2023. The top foreign markets were Russia (4 MT), India (3.5 MT), Turkey (3.3 MT), Ukraine (2.4 MT), and China (2.3 MT). That’s down from 52.3 million tons in 2017, the first year of the Trump presidency. Europe’s top iron and steel export markets were Turkey (8.8 million tons), the UK (2.5 million tons), the U.S. (2.4 million tons), Egypt (1.6. million tons), and Switzerland (1.5 million tons).
China’s Oversupply
China, of course, still reigns supreme atop the global steel industry. The country has been hit by a property bubble forcing excess steel capacity onto global markets. In November, the country announced a stimulus package over a trillion dollars, which should absorb more production.
During the first eight months of 2024, the top exporters of iron and steel (HS72) in 2024 were China (64 million tons in the first eight months), the EU (34.7 million tons), Japan (24.4 million tons), South Korea (17.2 million tons), Indonesia (13.8 million tons), Brazil (9.9 million tons), Turkey (9.1 million tons), Iran (8.3 million tons), and India (8 million tons).
The Flat-Rolled Market
China is the world’s top exporters of flat-rolled iron or nonalloy steel products (HS7208), shipping out 21.9 million tons in the first eight months of 2024, ahead of Japan (9.9 million tons), South Korea (5.6 million tons), Turkey (2.1 million tons), India (2 million tons), and the U.S. (1.1 million tons).
The biggest importers were South Korea (3.6 million tons), Turkey (2.9 million tons), India (2.7 million tons), the U.S. (1.9 million tons), Malaysia (1.7 million tons), Thailand (1.6 million tons), Mexico (1.5 million tons), Indonesia (1.4 million tons), and Japan (1.3 million tons). By comparison, in 2015, the U.S. imported 4.3 million tons of flat-rolled over the same time period.
John W. Miller