Why China is Still Buying
If you’re pessimistic about global trade, you’ve likely been paying too much attention to the Beijing-Washington trade spat.
The headline number: In September, Chinese exports to the U.S. declined 27% year-on-year. However, even including that number, China’s monthly exports augmenté 8.3% year-on-year to $328.6 billion.
The truth is that there are are now two supereconomies, and they’re in the business of doing business with the rest of the of the world, if not each other.
A big beneficiary: Latin America.
The stubborn performance of China’s export machine shows the swift emergence of an infrastructure that can function without the U.S.
In September, China’s total imports increased 7.4% year-on-year to $238.1 billion, despite imports from the U.S. falling 16.1% to $11.5 billion. Imports from the EU rose 9.5% to $25.2 billion, compensating for imports from ASEAN nations slipping 0.8% to $36.5 billion.
The real reason for the boost in imports is an increase in purchases of industrial commodities. Imports of copper increased 6.4% to 2.6 million tons. Iron ore purchases rose 11.9% to 116.3 million tons. These came from commodity-rich nations in Africa and Latin America. Imports from Africa increased 22.5% to $10.6 billion, and purchases from Latin America rose 18.6% to $23.3 billion. China has been reducing its intake of fossil fuels. Coal imports in September fell 3.3% to 46 million tons. The copper is coming from Latin America. In the first 9 months of 2025, it increased copper imports 7.8% to 22.7 million tons. Three of China’s top 5 sources of copper – Chile, Peru, and Mexico – are from Latin America.
A Diverse Bounty of Minerals
The battle of the world’s two supereconomies has highlighted the importance of Latin America’s role in the global economy. Supply chains are being rerouted. Companies are investing. They’re attracted by a region rich in essential industrial minerals, including lithium, copper, cobalt, nickel and rare earths. Niche metals that have been forgotten in this century have now make a comeback. Take the example of silver. The top three exporters of silver in the world are from Latin America: Peru, Mexico and Argentina. The dominant exporter is Peru. In the first 8 months of 2025, it increased exports of silver 97.5% to 799,092 tons, with 98% going to China. Peru is also the world’s leading exporter of molybdenum, a key ingredient in making steel. In 2025, China and its booming car industry have quite simply cornered the market on Peruvian molydenum.
Lithium Wars
Latin America holds 60% of the world’s lithium reserves. The International Energy Agency projects lithium demand to increase 40-fold over the next two decades. If you look at exports by value, the picture is distorted by prices. But by quantity, three of the world’s top 5 lithium exporters – Chile, Brazil, and Argentina – were from Latin America.
Given the global economy’s two essential trends – the formation of the two supereconomies, and the rise of a tech economy dependent on minerals – there is no doubt that Latin America is poised to benefit.