{"id":11724,"date":"2024-10-23T17:35:49","date_gmt":"2024-10-23T17:35:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tradedatamonitor.com\/?p=11724"},"modified":"2024-10-23T17:36:39","modified_gmt":"2024-10-23T17:36:39","slug":"chinese-exports-increased-2-4-year-on-year-below-economists-expectations-of-around-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tradedatamonitor.com\/es\/datanews\/chinese-exports-increased-2-4-year-on-year-below-economists-expectations-of-around-6\/","title":{"rendered":"China finalmente afectada por aranceles proteccionistas"},"content":{"rendered":"

Lluvia de septiembre<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

China public\u00f3 cifras comerciales mediocres en septiembre, lo que pone de relieve c\u00f3mo podr\u00eda volverse poco a poco menos dependiente del comercio mundial a medida que otras econom\u00edas importantes se retraen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las exportaciones chinas aumentaron 2,41 TP3T interanual, por debajo de las expectativas de los economistas de alrededor de 61 TP3T, a 1 TP4T303,7 mil millones, mientras que las importaciones aumentaron solo 0,31 TP3T a 1 TP4T222 mil millones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El auge del 2024<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Durante la mayor parte de 2024, las exportaciones e importaciones chinas han estado entre las de mejor desempe\u00f1o del mundo, a pesar de las agresivas medidas arancelarias proteccionistas de los gobiernos de Estados Unidos y Europa. En agosto, por ejemplo, las exportaciones chinas aumentaron 8,71 TP3T interanuales. La China moderna, la mayor potencia exportadora que el mundo haya conocido, no se dejaba vencer tan f\u00e1cilmente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eso cambi\u00f3 en septiembre. \u201cTras el desempe\u00f1o estelar de 2024, las exportaciones de China finalmente enfrentan una llamada de atenci\u00f3n del proteccionismo comercial global y el exceso de capacidad, que afectan la cantidad de ventas y el valor unitario\u201d, dijo Gary Ng, economista senior del banco de inversi\u00f3n franc\u00e9s Natixis, al South China Morning Post. \u201cLos datos de importaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s d\u00e9biles muestran que la demanda interna no se ha recuperado y los hogares y las empresas se muestran cautelosos con respecto al consumo y la inversi\u00f3n\u201d. Los funcionarios de aduanas chinos tambi\u00e9n se\u00f1alaron los tifones en los puertos asi\u00e1ticos, la congesti\u00f3n en la industria naviera y los altos vol\u00famenes comerciales de los a\u00f1os anteriores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Depresi\u00f3n de la UE <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sin embargo, el panorama general es m\u00e1s complejo. En particular, los datos de septiembre de China apuntan a un debilitamiento de los v\u00ednculos con la Uni\u00f3n Europea. Los env\u00edos a la UE aumentaron 1,91 billones de yuanes hasta 42.100 millones de yuanes, mientras que las importaciones cayeron 3,21 billones de yuanes hasta 23.000 millones de yuanes. Las importaciones procedentes de Francia cayeron 11,11 billones de yuanes hasta 2.900 millones de yuanes. Los env\u00edos procedentes de Italia disminuyeron 7,81 billones de yuanes hasta 2.000 millones de yuanes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En comparaci\u00f3n, las exportaciones a los EE. UU. aumentaron 2,91 TP3T a $47 mil millones, mientras que los env\u00edos desde los EE. UU. aumentaron 6,61 TP3T a $13,7 mil millones. Las exportaciones a los pa\u00edses de la ASEAN aumentaron 7,21 TP3T a $46,4 mil millones. Las importaciones aumentaron 4,31 TP3T a $36,8 mil millones. Las importaciones desde Brasil cayeron 14,11 TP3T a $9,8 mil millones. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

China sigue comprando grandes cantidades de combustibles y metales industriales, aunque los precios han ido bajando. Siempre necesitar\u00e1 materias primas para abastecer de energ\u00eda a sus ciudades, autom\u00f3viles y edificios. Las importaciones de mineral de hierro aumentaron 3,21 TP3T hasta 104,1 millones de toneladas en cantidad, pero cayeron 11,51 TP3T en valor hasta $9.900 millones. Las importaciones de cobre aumentaron 8,71 TP3T en cantidad hasta 2,4 millones de toneladas y 22,91 TP3T en valor hasta $5.900 millones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Econom\u00eda dom\u00e9stica <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Es probable que la econom\u00eda manufacturera nacional satisfaga m\u00e1s demanda localmente en lugar de enviar al exterior. Las exportaciones de productos pl\u00e1sticos cayeron 4,91 TP3T a $8 mil millones. Las exportaciones de juguetes disminuyeron 6,11 TP3T a $4,1 mil millones. Los env\u00edos de tel\u00e9fonos m\u00f3viles cayeron 4,91 TP3T a $15,1 mil millones. Los env\u00edos de calzado cayeron 12,81 TP3T a $33 mil millones. Las exportaciones de muebles cayeron 9,71 TP3T a $4,7 mil millones. Los env\u00edos de productos de alta tecnolog\u00eda se mantuvieron b\u00e1sicamente estables, disminuyendo 0,71 TP3T a $80,6 mil millones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hay algunos segmentos de nicho que se opusieron a la tendencia y registraron fuertes aumentos en septiembre. Las exportaciones de electrodom\u00e9sticos aumentaron 5,21 TP3T a $8.6 mil millones, y las ventas de veh\u00edculos de motor aumentaron 25,71 TP3T a $11.6 mil millones. El auge de la industria automotriz china, orientada a la exportaci\u00f3n de veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos, sigue siendo una de las fuerzas impulsoras del comercio global moderno. Estados Unidos, la UE y Canad\u00e1 han impuesto aranceles de importaci\u00f3n a los veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos chinos en 2024. Se esperan m\u00e1s acciones proteccionistas en todo el mundo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cadena de suministro de alta tecnolog\u00eda intacta<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

China tambi\u00e9n necesita seguir importando piezas y partes para sus cadenas de suministro de tel\u00e9fonos inteligentes y computadoras. Las importaciones de productos de alta tecnolog\u00eda aumentaron 10,51 billones de TP3 a 1 bill\u00f3n de TP4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La inflaci\u00f3n ha estado cayendo r\u00e1pidamente en China, lo que indica el fin de la pandemia de Covid-19 y el debilitamiento de la demanda de los consumidores. Un sector donde los precios cayeron m\u00e1s fue el farmac\u00e9utico. Las importaciones aumentaron 23,21 TP3T en cantidad a 42.217 toneladas, pero cayeron 1,61 TP3T a 1 TP4T4.1 mil millones en valor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Es probable que el futuro de la econom\u00eda china sea muy diferente al del primer cuarto del siglo XXI. El gobierno ha anunciado programas para impulsar la demanda, incluido un gasto de m\u00e1s de 1.400 millones de d\u00f3lares en construcci\u00f3n. Los funcionarios dicen que est\u00e1n considerando otras medidas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

John W. Miller<\/em><\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

September Rain China posted lackluster trade figures in September, highlighting how it might become slowly less reliant on global commerce as other major economies retrench. 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