{"id":11088,"date":"2023-12-20T21:24:10","date_gmt":"2023-12-20T21:24:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tradedatamonitor.com\/?p=11088"},"modified":"2023-12-21T19:14:54","modified_gmt":"2023-12-21T19:14:54","slug":"trade-data-monitors-top-10-trade-trends-going-into-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tradedatamonitor.com\/es\/datanews\/trade-data-monitors-top-10-trade-trends-going-into-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Las 10 principales tendencias comerciales de Trade Data Monitor de cara a 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

No es un momento f\u00e1cil para el comercio global: la porci\u00f3n de aproximadamente $25 billones de los $105 billones de la econom\u00eda mundial. El proteccionismo est\u00e1 rugiendo en Estados Unidos y Europa, provocando tensiones geopol\u00edticas con China. La inflaci\u00f3n en la mayor parte del mundo ha reducido las carteras de los consumidores y las importaciones, mientras que la deflaci\u00f3n en China tambi\u00e9n est\u00e1 asustando a las empresas. Las cadenas de suministro asi\u00e1ticas se est\u00e1n desplomando. Despu\u00e9s de la invasi\u00f3n rusa de Ucrania en 2022, el conflicto de finales de 2023 entre Israel y Palestina ha creado m\u00e1s incertidumbre empresarial, peligro para los buques portacontenedores que transitan por el Mar Rojo y tensi\u00f3n geopol\u00edtica. Y luego est\u00e1n los cambios estructurales en las cadenas de suministro que han generado temores de desglobalizaci\u00f3n. Probablemente sea un riesgo menor de lo que la gente piensa. "Vemos algunos signos en los datos de fragmentaci\u00f3n comercial vinculada a tensiones geopol\u00edticas", dijo el economista jefe de la OMC, Ralph Ossa. \u201cAfortunadamente, todav\u00eda no hemos llegado a una desglobalizaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s amplia. Los datos sugieren que los bienes se siguen produciendo a trav\u00e9s de cadenas de suministro complejas, pero que el alcance de estas cadenas puede haberse estancado, al menos en el corto plazo\u201d. En otras palabras, estamos en una \u00e9poca de cambios, raz\u00f3n m\u00e1s que nunca para prestar mucha atenci\u00f3n a las tendencias. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Estas son las 10 principales tendencias comerciales actuales de Trade Data Monitor a principios de 2024:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Crisis comercial: <\/strong>El proteccionismo, las oscilaciones de precios (inflaci\u00f3n en Estados Unidos y Europa, deflaci\u00f3n en China) y las tensiones geopol\u00edticas han creado un entorno incierto para el comercio. La Organizaci\u00f3n Mundial del Comercio pronostica ahora que el comercio mundial crecer\u00e1 solo 0,81 TP3T en 2023, menos de la mitad del aumento de 1,71 TP3T pronosticado en abril. Para 2024, la OMC espera un aumento de 3,3%, una recuperaci\u00f3n modesta, pero por debajo de la tendencia de principios de la d\u00e9cada de 2000.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. El efecto COVID: <\/strong>La pandemia de COVID-19 deprimi\u00f3 el comercio entre 2020 y 2023, pero ahora ha provocado un auge en los env\u00edos de vacunas y kits de pruebas m\u00e9dicas. Estados Unidos aument\u00f3 las importaciones de kits de pruebas m\u00e9dicas de 46% a $44,7 mil millones en los 10 meses de 2023. Los principales exportadores de pruebas m\u00e9dicas para ni\u00f1os son Suiza (hasta 12% a $39,3 mil millones), Alemania (hasta 9% a $24,5 mil millones) y Estados Unidos (hasta 11% hasta $16 mil millones), seguidos de Irlanda, B\u00e9lgica y los Pa\u00edses Bajos.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Problema de China: <\/strong>Antes se pod\u00eda contar con la muerte, los impuestos y un repunte de las exportaciones chinas. Ese ya no es el caso. Los fabricantes han diversificado sus cadenas de suministro, los consumidores no compran lo suficiente y los aranceles y las restricciones a las exportaciones est\u00e1n aumentando. El resultado: en los primeros 11 meses de 2023, las exportaciones chinas disminuyeron 4% a $3,1 billones. Las exportaciones a Estados Unidos durante ese tiempo cayeron 13% a $463.700 millones.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. La ca\u00edda de Asia:<\/strong> China no fue el \u00fanico pa\u00eds asi\u00e1tico que sufri\u00f3 una ca\u00edda en las exportaciones. Los env\u00edos de Singapur cayeron 9,3% a $395,5 mil millones, las exportaciones de Corea del Sur disminuyeron 10% a $519,3 mil millones, y las ventas de Jap\u00f3n cayeron 4,6% a $591,4 mil millones, y las exportaciones de Taiw\u00e1n cayeron 12,6% a $354,2 mil millones en los primeros 10 meses. de 2023.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Rebote estadounidense y europeo: <\/strong>La situaci\u00f3n ha sido mejor para Estados Unidos y Europa. Las cadenas de suministro se est\u00e1n alejando de China, beneficiando al comercio estadounidense y europeo. Las exportaciones de Alemania aumentaron 1,5% a $1,4 billones y los env\u00edos franceses aumentaron 5,3% a $527,9 mil millones en los primeros 10 meses de 2023. Las exportaciones estadounidenses disminuyeron 2,4% en general a $1,7 billones, pero eso se debi\u00f3 principalmente a una disminuci\u00f3n en precios de combustible. Los env\u00edos de productos electr\u00f3nicos, maquinaria, autom\u00f3viles, aviones y productos farmac\u00e9uticos aumentaron.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. No quites la vista de los coches el\u00e9ctricos: <\/strong>Los coches el\u00e9ctricos podr\u00edan ser el producto comercial m\u00e1s importante del mundo en este momento. Alemania (hasta 86% en los primeros nueve meses de 2023 hasta $30,4 mil millones), China (hasta 112% hasta $25,1 mil millones), B\u00e9lgica (hasta 78,1% hasta $13,3 mil millones), Corea del Sur (hasta 89% hasta $10,4 mil millones) y Estados Unidos (hasta 41,4% hasta $5,8 mil millones) est\u00e1n liderando la carga.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  7. La revoluci\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica: <\/strong>Las inversiones en energ\u00eda verde, impulsadas por los gobiernos y la demanda de los consumidores, est\u00e1n impulsando nuevos flujos comerciales. Por ejemplo, las importaciones estadounidenses de paneles solares y piezas relacionadas aumentaron 70,1% a $19.500 millones en los primeros 10 meses de 2023.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  8. Comercio Rusia-China: <\/strong>El enorme auge del comercio entre Rusia y China, desencadenado por la guerra en Ucrania y las posteriores sanciones estadounidenses y europeas, todav\u00eda contin\u00faa, pero finalmente est\u00e1 mostrando signos de disminuir. Rusia es ahora la sexta fuente de importaciones y el sexto destino de exportaciones de China. Pero despu\u00e9s de aumentos de tres d\u00edgitos en 2022, los aumentos mensuales finalmente est\u00e1n cayendo. Por ejemplo, en noviembre de 2023, las exportaciones chinas a Rusia aumentaron 35% a $10,3 mil millones. \u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  9. Auge del comercio regional:<\/strong> Estamos viendo un auge saludable en las redes comerciales regionales. Un ejemplo es el Medio Oriente. Por ejemplo, las exportaciones iran\u00edes a Irak (+73%) y Turqu\u00eda (+32%) aumentaron, pero los env\u00edos del pa\u00eds a China cayeron 16,3% en los primeros nueve meses de 2023. Y los aumentos no fueron impulsados solo por los mayores precios del petr\u00f3leo. Ir\u00e1n aument\u00f3 sus exportaciones de petr\u00f3leo a Irak en 332,8% hasta 88,4 millones de barriles en los primeros nueve meses de 2023. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  10. China est\u00e1 comprando todo el carb\u00f3n: <\/strong>Mientras gran parte del resto del mundo intenta dejar de depender de los combustibles f\u00f3siles, especialmente el m\u00e1s sucio, el carb\u00f3n, China est\u00e1 aumentando sus importaciones. Ir\u00f3nicamente, necesita carb\u00f3n en parte para alimentar una nueva generaci\u00f3n de centrales el\u00e9ctricas que bombean electricidad para bater\u00edas de autom\u00f3viles el\u00e9ctricos. En los primeros 10 meses de 2023, aument\u00f3 las compras de roca negra 38% a $33.500 millones en valor y 96,6% en cantidad a 250,3 millones de toneladas.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    John W. Miller es el analista econ\u00f3mico jefe de Trade Data Monitor y est\u00e1 a cargo de redactar <\/em>TDM<\/em> Insights, un bolet\u00edn que analiza cuestiones clave a trav\u00e9s de estad\u00edsticas comerciales. John es un periodista galardonado que ha informado desde 45 pa\u00edses para el Wall Street Journal, la revista Time y NPR.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    No es un momento f\u00e1cil para el comercio global: la porci\u00f3n de aproximadamente $25 billones de los $105 billones de la econom\u00eda mundial. El proteccionismo est\u00e1 rugiendo en Estados Unidos y Europa, provocando tensiones geopol\u00edticas con...<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":11089,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"industry":[139,140,141,168,143,154,158],"region":[144,146,149,150,145,147,167,151,148,152],"class_list":["post-11088","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","industry-ag","industry-chemicals","industry-energy","industry-high-tech","industry-minerals","industry-mining","industry-steel","region-asia-pacific","region-china","region-continents","region-countries","region-europe","region-india","region-russia","region-south-america","region-u-s","region-vietnam"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrade Data Monitor\u2019s Top 10 Trade Trends Going Into 2024 - Trade Data Monitor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tradedatamonitor.com\/es\/datanews\/trade-data-monitors-top-10-trade-trends-going-into-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trade Data Monitor\u2019s Top 10 Trade Trends Going Into 2024 - Trade Data Monitor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It\u2019s not an easy time for global trade–the roughly $25 trillion piece of the $105 trillion world economy. 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