Global Trade Can Take a Punch
This month, markets have swerved to adjust to the threat of new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. Yet, global trade keeps finding a way. In September, although shipments to the U.S. plummeted, China’s monthly exports increased 8.3% year-on-year to $328.6 billion.
One way of looking at the stubborn performance of China’s export machine, and the global trading system, is that the swift emergence of an infrastructure that can function without the U.S.. “This resilience shows that China has strengthened trade with the rest of the world amid US protectionism,” ING Bank economist Lynn Song wrote in a published note Monday.
To be sure, both China and the U.S have talked up the possibility of more radical constrictions on trade that would put more of a dent in the global economy, but so far this year, trade has been surprisingly robust.
The Supereconomies
At the World Trade Organization’s forum last month, there was talk of how a multilateral trade deal might be conceived even if Washington didn’t join the party. But, despite new duties, even the U.S. is having a decent year trading with the rest of the world. In the first seven months of 2025, U.S. imports increased 11% to $2.1 trillion, while exports rose 4.6% to $1.2 trillion.
What’s going on here?
The simplest explanation is that the world’s two supereconomies are both so populated and wealthy that businesses can find opportunities to buy and sell despite governments’ new tax burdens.
To boot, China and the U.S. are less and less intertwined with each other, meaning that their trade dispute has less of an impact on the global economy that it would have a decade ago.
Ten years ago, in the first nine months of 2015, the U.S. accounted for 18%, or $303.8 billion, of China’s $1.7 trillion of exports. This year, in the first nine months of 2025, the U.S. was worth only 11.4%, or $317.2 billion, of China’s $2.8 trillion of exports. In September, exports to the U.S. dropped 27% to $34.3 billion.
The World is a Big Place
To replace the U.S. markets, Chinese-based manufacturers, many of which are connected to U.S. and European corporations, have been finding substitute markets. In September, Exports to ASEAN countries increased 15.8% to $53.7 billion. Particularly, exports to Vietnam rose 24.6% to $16.7 billion. Exports to the European Union rose 14.2% to $48 billion.
One place that is becoming less valuable to Chinese exports: Russia, where exports dropped 21% to $8.9 billion.
China’s economy has faced its own set of challenges, including a credit crisis and housing bubble. But in September, total imports increased 7.4% to $238.1 billion, despite imports from the U.S. falling 16.1% to $11.5 billion. Imports from the EU rose 9.5% to $25.2 billion, compensating for imports from ASEAN nations slipping 0.8% to $36.5 billion.
The Strength of Heavy Industry
The real reason for the boost in imports is an increase in purchases of industrial commodities. Imports of copper increased 6.4% to 2.6 million tons. Iron ore purchases rose 11.9% to 116.3 million tons. These came from commodity-rich nations in Africa and Latin America. Imports from Africa increased 22.5% to $10.6 billion, and purchases from Latin America rose 18.6% to $23.3 billion. China has been reducing its intake of fossil fuels. Coal imports in September fell 3.3% to 46 million tons.
All that metal is getting turned into a car industry that have overtaken the U.S. In September, automobile exports increased 10.8% to $12.8 billion.
In many cases, companies are overcoming protectionism for a simple reason: They can afford it. For example, in September, China’s exports of rare earths declined 4.3% by quantity, to 4,000.3 tons. By prices, they roughly doubled in value to $60 million. It’s often said that rare earths are essential for modern electronics, and that’s true, but the quantities required are miniscule, and even when supply gets tightened and prices spike, affordable.
There are real signs that tariffs and faltering consumer demand are denting exports of manufacturing staples. Exports of toys, for example, fell 28% to $2.9 billion. Sales of shoes fell 13.2% to $2.9 billion. Exports of household appliances dropped 9.6% to $7.7 billion.
One good sign for global trade: exports of ships increased 24% to 543 from 438. By value, sales rose 43% to $6.6 billion. Ships are becoming more valuable because firms need them.